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La Liga
La Liga Spain
34 round 04.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
04.05.2026 19:00 UTC 34 round
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Sevilla - Real Sociedad

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Capacity 48 649
Sevilla
Sevilla
1 : 0
Finished
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Real Sociedad — 37%

1 · Sevilla35.8%
X · draw27.2%
2 · Real Sociedad37.0%

Model estimate: win Sevilla 35.8%, draw 27.2%, win Real Sociedad 37.0%. Model favourite — Real Sociedad.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sevilla - Real Sociedad May 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sevilla.

Line favourite market consensus: Sevilla. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.43 / X 3.28 / 2 2.99
  • 1X2 market: Sevilla 39.1% / X 29.0% / Real Sociedad 31.8%
  • Glicko: Sevilla 35.8% / X 27.2% / Real Sociedad 37.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 46.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 39.2%
X 29.0%
2 31.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 46.9%
Under 2.5 53.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/5
Confidence 36.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Stadium Ramon Sanches Piskhuan (Sevilya, Spain), 40 792 zritelya (84% pri vmestimosti 48 649)
Referee Khuan Martines Munuera (Alikante)
Start 04.05.2026 19:00 UTC
Capacity 48,649
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Real Sociedad 37%
💹 Market Sevilla 3914%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Sevilla - Real Sociedad

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Sevilya - Real Sosedad, 4 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Spain po futbolu (La Liga) 2025-2026, 34 round. Sevilya - Real Sosedad, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
28' 28' Yellow Card | J. Aramburu J. Aramburu Real Sociedad
46' 46' Substitution 1 | I. Romero | assist/sub out: A. Sanchez Isaac Sevilla
46' 46' Substitution 1 | J. Gorrotxategi | assist/sub out: O. Oskarsson Jon Gorrotxategi Real Sociedad
50' 50' Normal Goal Sevilla
58' 58' Substitution 2 | P. Marin | assist/sub out: T. Kubo Pablo Marín Real Sociedad
69' 69' Substitution 3 | B. Turrientes | assist/sub out: Y. Herrera BeG±at Turrientes Real Sociedad
75' 75' Yellow Card | A. Sanchez A. Sánchez Sevilla
75' 75' Substitution 2 | R. Vargas | assist/sub out: J. Sanchez R. Vargas Sevilla
Metric Sevilla Real Sociedad SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.82 0.16 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 5 final
Shots off target 8 1 final
Shots on target 5 0 final
Udary vsego 19 6 final
Fouls soversheno 19 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 3 0 final
Sevilla #1 O. Vlachodimos, #12 G. Suazo, #17 N. Maupay, #21 C. Ejuke, #4 Kike Salas, #6 N. Gudelj, #7 Isaac, #18 L. Agoumé, #32 Andrés Castrín, #2 José Ángel Carmona, #11 R. Vargas
Real Sociedad #1 GЃlex Remiro, #4 Jon Gorrotxategi, #10 M. Oyarzabal, #15 Pablo MarG­n, #17 Sergio GGіmez, #8 BeG±at Turrientes, #16 D. Caleta-Car, #18 Carlos Soler, #7 Barrenetxea, #31 Jon MartG­n, #2 J. Aramburu
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Zakharyan Real Sociedad Seyvy 0
Aihen MuG±oz Real Sociedad Seyvy 0
Aitor Fraga Real Sociedad Seyvy 0
Álex Remiro Real Sociedad football.player.assists 0
Álex Remiro Real Sociedad Dribling popytki 1
Álex Remiro Real Sociedad Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
Álex Remiro Real Sociedad Fouls soversheno 1
Álex Remiro Real Sociedad Seyvy 1
Álex Remiro Real Sociedad football.player.minutes_played 90
Álex Remiro Real Sociedad Klyuchevye pasy 38
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sevilla 39.6% 35.8% market favourite
Draw 27.4% 27.2% draw risk
Real Sociedad 33.1% 37.0% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.22 : 1.25
Total 2.5 Over 46.4% - Under 53.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.8% / 27.2% / 37.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,438 / 1,523 Sevilla / Real Sociedad
RD 72 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.99 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.0%
X 3.28 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.43 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.8%
Double chance
X2 1.54 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.3%
12 1.32 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.8%
1X 1.39 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.24 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.86 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.28 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.03 market consensus · no value · model 46.4%
Under 2.5 1.79 market consensus · no value · model 53.6%
Both teams to score
No 1.99 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.75 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.34 42.7% 2.52 39.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.33 30.0% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3%
3.00 33.3% 3.14 31.9% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8% 2.90 34.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.92 52.1% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.77 56.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.79 55.9% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.57 63.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0 — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25 — 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.5 1.35 74.1% 1.32 75.8%
Over 1.75 — 1.42 70.4%
Over 2.0 — 1.53 65.4%
Over 2.25 — 1.88 53.2%
Over 2.5 2.00 50.0% —
Over 3.5 3.65 27.4% —
Over 4.5 7.00 14.3% —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 1.5 3.10 32.3% —
Under 2.5 1.77 56.5% —
Under 3.5 1.28 78.1% —
Under 4.5 1.09 91.7% —
Match center
Sevilla
Founded 1890
Real Sociedad
Founded 1909
Match center
Sevilla
M Marcão Wrist Injury
DS D. Sow Yellow Cards
Real Sociedad
O Odriozola Knee Injury
GG Gonçalo Guedes Toe Injury
Markan Manuel Bueno Travmirovannye Alvaro Odriosola Igor Subeldiya Gonsalu Gedesh Khon Karrikaburu Diskvalifitsirovannye Dzhibril Sou CHAMP
Sevilla Founded: 1890
Real Sociedad Founded: 1909
Match center
Sevilla
L L W L L
26.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 1:2 OsasunaOsasuna
23.04 17:00 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 0:2 LevanteLevante
11.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 2:1 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
05.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 0:1 OviedoOviedo
21.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 0:2 ValenciaValencia
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points
Real Sociedad
D L D W L
26.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 3:3 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
22.04 18:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 0:1 GetafeGetafe
11.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 3:3 AlavesAlaves
04.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 2:0 LevanteLevante
20.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 1:3 VillarrealVillarreal
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySevilla - Real Sociedad

Sevilla
1 matches total
Real Sociedad
Sevilla: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Real Sociedad: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Real Sociedad 1:2 (24.10 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 24.10 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

24.10 19:00 UTC La Liga
Sevilla
1:2
Real Sociedad
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Sevilla
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Real Sociedad
Sevilla Team comparison Real Sociedad
33 Games 33
9 Wins 11
7 Draws 10
17 Losses 12
40 Scored 52
55 Conceded 52
34 Points 43
92.8 Attacks 94.68
44.23 Dangerous attacks 45.43
0 Big chances 0
10.67 Shots on goal 12.12
3.33 Shots on target 4.79
15 Sendoffs 0.12 Goly Aleksis Sanches Nil Mope 1:0 50' Nakazaniya Khon Aramburu 28' Aleksis Sanches 75' Khose Ankhel Karmona 88'

Sevilya Real Sosedad 33 Games 33 9 Wins 11 7 Draws 10 17 Losses 12 40 Scored 52 55 Conceded 52 34 Points 43 92.8 Attacks 94.68 44.23 Dangerous attacks 45.43 0 Big chances 0 10.67 Shots on goal 12.12 3.33 Udary v stvor 4.79 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.97 Uglovye 5.85 2.7 Offsaydy 2.33 14.48 Foly 14.06 51.73 % vladeniya myachom 50.88 2.79 Warnings 2.12 0.15 Sendoffs 0.12 Goly Aleksis Sanches Nil Mope 1:0 50' Nakazaniya Khon Aramburu 28' Aleksis Sanches 75' Khose Ankhel Karmona 88'