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La Liga
La Liga Spain
23.09.2025 19:30 UTC Match prediction
23.09.2025 19:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Sevilla - Villarreal

Spain Football
Sevilla
Sevilla
1 : 2
Finished
Villarreal
Villarreal

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sevilla - Villarreal September 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villarreal.

Line favourite market consensus: Villarreal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.24 / X 3.30 / 2 2.28
  • 1X2 market: Sevilla 29.4% / X 28.8% / Villarreal 41.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 29.4%
X 28.9%
2 41.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 48.2%
Under 2.5 51.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.09.2025 19:30 UTC
Match center

Sevilla - Villarreal

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.27 market consensus · line only
X 3.31 market consensus · line only
1 3.26 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.35 market consensus · line only
12 1.33 market consensus · line only
1X 1.64 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.23 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.52 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.99 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.03 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.75 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.51 28.5%
X 3.43 29.2%
2.22 45.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.15 31.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.22 31.1% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.30 30.3%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.10 32.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9%
2.28 43.9% 2.29 43.7% 2.44 41.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 1.99 50.3% 2.13 47.0%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.35 74.1% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.60 62.5% 1.63 61.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2%
Match center
Sevilla
W D W L L
20.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 2:1 AlavesAlaves
12.09 19:00 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 2:2 ElcheElche
30.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 2:0 GironaGirona
25.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 1:2 GetafeGetafe
17.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 2:3 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Villarreal
W L D W W
20.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:1 OsasunaOsasuna
13.09 19:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 0:2 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
31.08 15:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:1 SeltaSelta
24.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 5:0 GironaGirona
15.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:0 OviedoOviedo
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySevilla - Villarreal

Sevilla
1 matches total
Villarreal
Sevilla: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Villarreal: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Villarreal 2:4 (25.05 14:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (2:4, 25.05 14:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 2

Match history

25.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Sevilla
2:4
Villarreal