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La Liga Spain

05.04.2026 14:15 UTC Match prediction

05.04.2026 14:15 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Valencia - Celta Vigo

Spain Football

Stadium Estadio de Mestalla

Capacity 55 000

Valencia

2 : 3

Finished

Celta Vigo

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Celta Vigo — 36%

1 · Valencia35.8%

X · draw28.3%

2 · Celta Vigo35.9%

Model estimate: win Valencia 35.8%, draw 28.3%, win Celta Vigo 35.9%. Model favourite — Celta Vigo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Valencia - Celta Vigo April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Valencia.

Line favourite market consensus: Valencia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.35 / X 3.23 / 2 3.16
1X2 market: Valencia 40.5% / X 29.5% / Celta Vigo 30.1%
Glicko: Valencia 35.8% / X 28.3% / Celta Vigo 35.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 44.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 40.5%

X 29.4%

2 30.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 43.9%

Under 2.5 56.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 28.5%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 05.04.2026 14:15 UTC

Stadium Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia)

Capacity 55,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Celta Vigo 36%

💹 Market Valencia 4049%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Valencia - Celta Vigo

Valencia: Win 2.38 Valencia: Draw 3.25 Celta Vigo Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Valencia bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Valencia menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Celta Vig…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:3

Events 19

Statistics 24

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

12' 12' Normal Goal | Guido Rodríguez N. Elvedi Valencia

43' 43' Yellow Card | Javi Rodríguez Celta Vigo

44' 44' Yellow Card | Marcos Alonso L. Kubler Celta Vigo

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Javi Rodríguez | assist/sub out: Jones El-Abdellaoui Celta Vigo

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Hugo Álvarez | assist/sub out: Williot Swedberg Celta Vigo

46' 46' Substitution 3 | Pablo Durán | assist/sub out: Fer López Celta Vigo

56' 56' Normal Goal | Ilaix Moriba Celta Vigo

60' 60' Normal Goal Celta Vigo

Metric Valencia Celta Vigo SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.8 1.05 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final

Shots off target 7 3 final

Shots on target 4 5 final

Udary vsego 13 9 final

Fouls soversheno 14 21 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 0 2 final

Valencia #1 S. Dimitrievski, #2 G. Rodriguez, #4 U. Nunez, #5 C. Tarrega, #8 J. Guerra, #9 H. Duro, #10 A. Almeida, #11 L. Rioja, #14 J. Gaya, #17 L. Ramazani, #24 E. Comert

Celta Vigo #3 Óscar Mingueza, #4 J. Aidoo, #5 Sergio Carreira, #6 I. Moriba, #9 Ferran Jutglà, #13 I. Radu, #18 Pablo Durán, #20 Marcos Alonso, #22 Hugo Sotelo, #23 Hugo Álvarez, #32 Javi Rodríguez

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Almeida Valencia football.player.assists 0

A. Almeida Valencia Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Almeida Valencia Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

A. Almeida Valencia Seyvy 0

A. Almeida Valencia football.player.minutes_played 63

A. Almeida Valencia Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Almeida Valencia Klyuchevye pasy 25

A. Almeida Valencia Pasy vsego 1

A. Almeida Valencia Reyting (staryy) 6.5

A. Almeida Valencia Shots on target 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Valencia 40.4% 35.8% market favourite

Draw 29.4% 28.3% draw risk

Celta Vigo 30.2% 35.9% Glicko contrarian

xG - 1.15 : 1.15

Total 2.5 Over 44.7% - Under 55.3%

Model check - - Difference 0.06

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 35.8% / 28.3% / 35.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,506 / 1,541 Valencia / Celta Vigo

RD 74 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.16 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.9%

X 3.23 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.35 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.8%

Double chance

X2 1.59 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.2%

12 1.33 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 71.7%

1X 1.36 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.61 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.04 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.73 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%

Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 55.3%

Both teams to score

No 1.90 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.30 43.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.41 41.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.35 42.6%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.36 29.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%
	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.15 31.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.90 52.6%	1.94 51.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.88 53.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.57 63.7%	1.64 61.0%	1.62 61.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.62 61.7%	1.53 65.4%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.35 74.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.21 82.6%
Over 1.5	1.38 72.5%	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.44 69.4%
Over 2.25	—	1.96 51.0%	—
Over 2.5	2.15 46.5%	—	—
Over 3.5	3.90 25.6%	—	—
Over 4.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	1.94 51.6%	—
Under 2.5	1.67 59.9%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.07 93.5%	—	—

Match center

Valencia

Founded 1919

Celta Vigo

Founded 1923

Match center

Valencia

MD M. Diakhaby Muscle Injury

DF D. Foulquier Knee Injury

Celta Vigo

MV M. Vecino Muscle Injury

IA Iago Aspas Achilles Tendon Injury

Valencia Founded: 1919

Celta Vigo Founded: 1923

Match center

Valencia

W L W W L

21.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Valencia 2:0 Sevilla

14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Valencia 0:1 Oviedo

08.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Valencia 3:2 Alaves

01.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Valencia 1:0 Osasuna

22.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Valencia 1:2 Villarreal

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

9 Points

Celta Vigo

L D L W W

22.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 3:4 Alaves

15.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:1 Real Betis

06.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:2 Real Madrid

01.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 2:1 Girona

22.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 2:0 Mallorca

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyValencia - Celta Vigo

Valencia

1 matches total

Celta Vigo

Valencia: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Celta Vigo: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Selta 1:4 (03.01 13:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (1:4, 03.01 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 1

Match history

03.01 13:00 UTC

La Liga

Valencia

1:4

Selta

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.