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La Liga
La Liga Spain
25.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
25.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Valencia - Girona

Spain Futbol
Stadium Estadio de Mestalla
Capacity 55 000
Valencia
Valencia
2 : 1
Finished
Girona
Girona
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Valencia — 44%

1 · Valencia43.8%
X · draw27.6%
2 · Girona28.7%

Model estimate: win Valencia 43.8%, draw 27.6%, win Girona 28.7%. Model favourite — Valencia.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Valencia - Girona 25 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Valencia.

Strongest: Valencia - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.00 / X 3.46 / 2 3.68
  • 1X2 market: Valencia 47.1% / X 27.3% / Girona 25.6%
  • Glicko: Valencia 43.8% / X 27.6% / Girona 28.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 80.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 47.1%
X 27.2%
2 25.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 49.9%
Under 2.5 50.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 8/8
Confidence 46.2%
Total ТБ 2.5
Score 2:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center
Start 25.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia)
Capacity 55,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Valencia 44%
💹 Market Valencia 4710%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Valencia - Girona

Valencia: Победа 2.00 Valencia: Ничья 3.40 Girona Победа: 3.60 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.91 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.91 Индивидуальный тотал голов Valencia больше 1.5: 2.00 Индивидуальный тотал голов Valencia меньше 1.5: 1.73 Индивидуальный тотал голов Girona больше…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
Metric Valencia Girona SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.4 1.56 final
Заблокированные удары 5 1 final
Удары мимо 4 2 final
Удары в створ 3 4 final
Удары всего 12 7 final
Фолы совершено 22 8 final
Желтые карточки 2 2 final
Офсайды 4 3 final
Valencia #1 S. Dimitrievski, #2 G. Rodriguez, #5 C. Tarrega, #6 U. Sadiq, #8 J. Guerra, #11 L. Rioja, #14 J. Gaya, #15 L. Beltran, #17 L. Ramazani, #18 Pepelu, #20 Renzo Saravia
Girona #4 A. Martinez, #11 T. Lemar, #12 Vitor Reis, #13 P. Gazzaniga, #14 C. Echeverri, #15 V. Tsygankov, #17 D. Blind, #18 A. Ounahi, #20 A. Witsel, #23 I. Martin, #24 A. Moreno
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Frances Girona football.player.assists 1
A. Frances Girona Дриблинг попытки 3
A. Frances Girona Дриблинг успешно 1
A. Frances Girona Единоборства выиграно 4
A. Frances Girona Фолы совершено 1
A. Frances Girona Сейвы 0
A. Frances Girona football.player.minutes_played 29
A. Frances Girona Точность пасов % 1
A. Frances Girona Ключевые пасы 34
A. Frances Girona Рейтинг (старый) 8.5
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Valencia 48.1% 43.8% market and model agree
Draw 27.0% 27.6% draw risk
Girona 24.9% 28.7%
xG - 1.33 : 1.02
Total 2.5 Over 80.1% - Under 19.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.8% / 27.6% / 28.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,488 / 1,503 Valencia / Girona
RD 72 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.68 market consensus · no value · model 28.7%
X 3.46 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.00 market consensus · no value · model 43.8%
Double chance
X2 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 56.2%
12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 72.4%
1X 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 71.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.38 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.53 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.91 market consensus · weak value +52.9% · model 80.1%
Under 2.5 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 19.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
П1 1.97 50.8% 2.06 48.5% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.00 50.0%
Х 3.40 29.4% 3.68 27.2% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0% 3.60 27.8%
П2 3.75 26.7% 3.86 25.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.65 27.4% 3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.07 48.3%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.71 58.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.73 57.8%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 1.06 94.3% 1.01 99.0%
ТБ 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.25 — 1.13 88.5%
ТБ 1.5 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0%
ТБ 1.75 — 1.31 76.3%
ТБ 2.0 — 1.41 70.9%
ТБ 2.25 — 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 2.5 1.93 51.8% —
ТБ 3.5 3.30 30.3% —
ТБ 4.5 6.25 16.0% —
ТМ 0.5 8.50 11.8% —
ТМ 1.5 3.40 29.4% —
ТМ 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
ТМ 3.5 1.33 75.2% —
ТМ 4.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
Valencia
Founded 1919
Girona
Founded 1930
Match center
Valencia
D L L W L
21.04 17:00 UTC La Liga
Valencia 1:1 MallorcaMallorca
11.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Valencia 0:1 ЭльчеЭльче
05.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Valencia 2:3 SeltaSelta
21.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Valencia 2:0 SevillaSevilla
14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Valencia 0:1 OviedoOviedo
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
4 Points
Girona
L D W L W
21.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Girona 2:3 Реал БетисРеал Бетис
10.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
06.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:0 VillarrealVillarreal
21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Girona 0:1 OsasunaOsasuna
14.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 3:0 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyValencia - Girona

Valencia
2 matches total
Girona
Valencia: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Girona: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Valencia 2:0 (21.09 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 04.10 14:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

04.10 14:15 UTC La Liga
Valencia
1:2
Girona
21.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Valencia
2:0
Girona
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.