PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
La Liga
La Liga Spain
26.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Villarreal - Celta Vigo

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio de la Ceramica
Referee A. Quintero
Capacity 24 500
Villarreal
Villarreal
2 : 1
Finished
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Villarreal — 47%

1 · Villarreal46.6%
X · draw25.7%
2 · Celta Vigo27.7%

Model estimate: win Villarreal 46.6%, draw 25.7%, win Celta Vigo 27.7%. Model favourite — Villarreal.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Villarreal - Celta Vigo April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villarreal.

Strongest: Villarreal - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.98 / X 3.41 / 2 3.80
  • 1X2 market: Villarreal 47.6% / X 27.6% / Celta Vigo 24.8%
  • Glicko: Villarreal 46.6% / X 25.7% / Celta Vigo 27.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 78.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 47.6%
X 27.6%
2 24.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.5%
Over 2.5 52.4%
Under 2.5 47.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 47.3%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 26.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)
Referee A. Quintero
Capacity 24,500

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Villarreal 47%
💹 Market Villarreal 4760%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Villarreal - Celta Vigo

Villarreal: Win 1.91 Villarreal: Draw 3.50 Celta Vigo Win: 3.70 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Villarreal bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Villarreal menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov C…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 21
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
2' 2' Penalty | G. Moreno Gerard Moreno Villarreal
14' 14' Yellow Card | M. Alonso Marcos Alonso Celta Vigo
18' 18' Yellow Card | A. Pedraza Pedraza Villarreal
29' 29' Normal Goal | N. Pepe | assist/sub out: A. Pedraza N. Pépé Villarreal
29' 29' Yellow Card | I. Radu I. Radu Celta Vigo
42' 42' Yellow Card | N. Pepe N. Pépé Villarreal
45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | P. Duran Pablo Durán Celta Vigo
46' 46' Substitution 1 | P. Duran | assist/sub out: F. Jutgla Pablo Durán Celta Vigo
Metric Villarreal Celta Vigo SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.72 2.08 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 2 final
Shots off target 5 4 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 13 9 final
Fouls soversheno 13 16 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 6 final
Offsides 1 2 final
Villarreal #9 G. Mikautadze, #20 Alberto Moleiro, #24 Pedraza, #25 Arnau Tenas, #7 Gerard Moreno, #12 R. Veiga, #18 P. Gueye, #4 Rafa MarG­n, #14 Santi ComesaG±a, #3 A. Freeman, #19 N. PG©pG©
Celta Vigo #5 Sergio Carreira, #7 B. Iglesias, #13 I. Radu, #20 Marcos Alonso, #23 Hugo Álvarez, #6 I. Moriba, #18 Pablo Durán, #29 Yoel Lago, #22 Hugo Sotelo, #32 Javi Rodríguez, #3 Óscar Mingueza
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Freeman Villarreal football.player.assists 0
A. Freeman Villarreal Dribling popytki 5
A. Freeman Villarreal Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Freeman Villarreal Edinoborstva vsego 2
A. Freeman Villarreal Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
A. Freeman Villarreal Fouls na igroke 2
A. Freeman Villarreal Seyvy 0
A. Freeman Villarreal football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Freeman Villarreal Klyuchevye pasy 52
A. Freeman Villarreal Reyting (staryy) 7.7
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Villarreal 47.7% 46.6% market and model agree
Draw 27.7% 25.7% draw risk
Celta Vigo 24.6% 27.7%
xG - 1.51 : 1.10
Total 2.5 Over 78.5% - Under 21.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 46.6% / 25.7% / 27.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,619 / 1,531 Villarreal / Celta Vigo
RD 74 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.80 market consensus · no value · model 27.7%
X 3.41 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.98 market consensus · no value · model 46.6%
Double chance
X2 1.81 market consensus · no value · model 53.4%
12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 74.3%
1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 72.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.84 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.44 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.62 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.87 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.81 market consensus · value +42.1% · model 78.5%
Under 2.5 1.99 market consensus · no value · model 21.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.12 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.95 51.3% 2.09 47.9% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.48 28.7% 3.25 30.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.35 29.9% 3.50 28.6%
3.95 25.3% 4.00 25.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 4.05 24.7% 4.00 25.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.20 45.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.65 60.6% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.75 57.1% 1.65 60.6% 1.64 61.0% 1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.22 82.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.75 — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.0 — 1.36 73.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.57 63.7%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% —
Over 3.5 2.95 33.9% —
Over 4.5 5.50 18.2% —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% —
Under 1.5 3.70 27.0% —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% —
Under 4.5 1.14 87.7% —
Match center
Villarreal
Founded 1923
Celta Vigo
Founded 1923
Match center
Villarreal
D W L W D
23.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:1 OviedoOviedo
12.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:1 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
06.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 0:1 GironaGirona
20.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 3:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
13.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:1 AlavesAlaves
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Celta Vigo
L L W L D
22.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
12.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 0:3 OviedoOviedo
05.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 3:2 ValenciaValencia
22.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 3:4 AlavesAlaves
15.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 1:1 Real BetisReal Betis
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.2 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyVillarreal - Celta Vigo

Villarreal
2 matches total
Celta Vigo
Villarreal: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Celta Vigo: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Selta 0:3 (23.04 17:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 23.04 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (31.08 15:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 1

Match history

31.08 15:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal
1:1
Selta
23.04 17:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal
0:3
Selta
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.