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La Liga Spain

20.03.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

20.03.2026 20:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Villarreal - Real Sociedad

Spain Football

Villarreal

3 : 1

Finished

Real Sociedad

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Villarreal - Real Sociedad March 20, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villarreal.

Line favourite market consensus: Villarreal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.97 / X 3.60 / 2 3.79
1X2 market: Villarreal 48.4% / X 26.5% / Real Sociedad 25.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 54.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 48.4%

X 26.5%

2 25.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 54.5%

Under 2.5 45.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 20.03.2026 20:00 UTC

Match center

Villarreal - Real Sociedad

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.80 market consensus · line only

X 3.61 market consensus · line only

1 1.97 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.85 market consensus · line only

12 1.27 market consensus · line only

1X 1.27 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.88 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.47 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.57 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.77 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.75 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.22 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.62 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.97 50.8%
X	3.68 27.2%
	3.93 25.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.90 52.6%	1.99 50.3%	2.02 49.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%
X	3.55 28.2%	3.75 26.7%	3.72 26.9%	3.40 29.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%
	3.80 26.3%	3.70 27.0%	3.98 25.1%	3.70 27.0%	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.20 45.5%	2.28 43.9%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.17 46.1%
yes	1.62 61.7%	1.64 61.0%	1.61 62.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.61 62.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.85 54.1%	1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.80 55.6%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%

Match center

Villarreal

D W L W W

13.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 1:1 Alaves

08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 2:1 Elche

28.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 1:4 Barselona

22.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 2:1 Valencia

18.02 19:00 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 1:0 Levante

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.4 Conceded

10 Points

Real Sociedad

W L W D L

15.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Sociedad 3:1 Osasuna

07.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Real Sociedad 2:3 Atletiko Madrid

28.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Real Sociedad 1:0 Mallorca

21.02 13:00 UTC La Liga

Real Sociedad 3:3 Oviedo

14.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Sociedad 1:4 Real Madrid

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

2.0 Scored

2.2 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyVillarreal - Real Sociedad

Villarreal

2 matches total

Real Sociedad

Villarreal: 1 (50%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Real Sociedad: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Villarreal 3:2 (30.11 13:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 30.11 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (20.04 14:15 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 5

Match history

30.11 13:00 UTC

La Liga

Villarreal

3:2

Real Sociedad

20.04 14:15 UTC

La Liga

Villarreal

2:2

Real Sociedad