Latvia: Virsliga Standings
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Riga — 81%
Pure model vs market (1 · Riga): model 64% · market 82% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Riga 81.2%, draw 12.1%, win Grobiņa 6.7%. Model favourite — Riga.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.70 58.8% |
| yes | 2.04 49.0% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.03 97.1% | 1.05 95.2% |
| x2 | 4.90 20.4% | 5.30 18.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.49 67.1% | |
| X | 2.85 35.1% |
| 11.70 8.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.95 51.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.76 56.8% |
Tukums 2000
Ogre United
Tukums 2000
RFSh
Full head-to-head historyRiga - Grobiņa
The Riga - Grobiņa breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
