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Liga de Expansión MX
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico
05.04.2026 01:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 01:00 UTC
Finished

Liga de Expansión MX

Mexico

Leones Negros UDG - Monarcas

Mexico Football
Stadium Estadio Jalisco
Capacity 56 713
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
2 : 0
Finished
Monarcas
Monarcas
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Monarcas — 38%

1 · Leones Negros UDG35.0%
X · draw27.4%
2 · Monarcas37.6%

Model estimate: win Leones Negros UDG 35.0%, draw 27.4%, win Monarcas 37.6%. Model favourite — Monarcas.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones Negros UDG - Monarcas April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leones Negros UDG.

Line favourite market consensus: Leones Negros UDG. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.78 / X 3.52 / 2 4.18
  • 1X2 market: Leones Negros UDG 51.6% / X 25.9% / Monarcas 22.5%
  • Glicko: Leones Negros UDG 35.0% / X 27.4% / Monarcas 37.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 14.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.5%
1 51.8%
X 26.2%
2 22.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 8.8%
Over 2.5 57.4%
Under 2.5 42.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 46.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 01:00 UTC
Stadium Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)
Capacity 56,713

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Monarcas 38%
💹 Market Leones Negros UDG 5157%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Leones Negros UDG - Monarcas

Leones Negros UDG: Win 2.65 Leones Negros UDG: Draw 3.45 Monarcas Win: 2.48 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.90 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.85 Individualnyy total golov Leones Negros UDG bolshe 1.5: 2.40 Individualnyy total golov Leones Negros UDG menshe 1.5: 1.50 In…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 16
Statistics 12
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
29' 29' Yellow Card Monarcas
39' 39' Normal Goal | J. Aguayo Leones Negros UDG
45' 45' Yellow Card Leones Negros UDG
49' 49' Yellow Card | D. Zamora Monarcas
52' 52' Substitution 1 | L. Sandoval | assist/sub out: J. Martinez Monarcas
52' 52' Yellow Card Monarcas
53' 53' Substitution 2 | A. D. Aguilera | assist/sub out: B. Figueroa Monarcas
55' 55' Normal Goal Leones Negros UDG
Metric Leones Negros UDG Monarcas SStats
Shots off target 5 7 final
Shots on target 3 4 final
Udary vsego 8 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 4 final
Ball possession, % 53 47 final
Corners 5 6 final
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leones Negros UDG 51.4% 35.0% market favourite
Draw 27.9% 27.4% draw risk
Monarcas 20.7% 37.6% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.19 : 1.24
Total 2.5 Over 14.6% - Under 85.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.17
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.17

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.0% / 27.4% / 37.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,474 / 1,572 Leones Negros UDG / Monarcas
RD 76 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.18 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.6%
X 3.52 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.78 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.0%
Double chance
X2 2.01 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 65.1%
12 1.24 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.6%
1X 1.18 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.99 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.64 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.64 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.06 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 14.6%
Under 2.5 2.16 market consensus · weak value +84.5% · model 85.4%
Both teams to score
No 2.12 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.63 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Betano Betfair Marathonbet
1.73 57.8% 1.81 55.3% 1.62 61.7% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.60 62.5%
X 3.85 26.0% 3.65 27.4% 3.46 28.9% 3.40 29.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.46 28.9%
4.33 23.1% 3.65 27.4% 5.18 19.3% 4.90 20.4% 3.90 25.6% 5.10 19.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.15 46.5% 2.07 48.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.27 44.1% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.60 62.5% 1.74 57.5% 1.64 61.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
draw_away 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.12 47.2% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 1.75 57.1%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.10 90.9% 1.16 86.2% 1.20 83.3% 1.10 90.9% 1.29 77.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% — 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.75 — — 1.21 82.6%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.99 50.3% —
Over 3.5 2.62 38.2% — —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.79 55.9% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Match center
Leones Negros UDG
Founded 1970
Monarcas
Founded 1950
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.