Match center
Start
04.04.2026 23:00 UTC
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04.04.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished
Liga MX
Club Queretaro - Toluca
1
:
0
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 Toluca — 60%
Model estimate: win Club Queretaro 16.5%, draw 23.5%, win Toluca 60.0%. Model favourite — Toluca.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Club Queretaro - Toluca April 4, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toluca.
Strongest: Toluca - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.42 / X 4.04 / 2 1.54
- 1X2 market: Club Queretaro 17.1% / X 22.9% / Toluca 60.0%
- Glicko: Club Queretaro 16.5% / X 23.5% / Toluca 60.0%
- Total 2.5: over probability 80.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.1%
1
17.1%
X
22.9%
2 ✓ Pick
60.0%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.8%
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 2
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
60.5%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
1:2
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Toluca 60%
💹 Market
Toluca 6004%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Club Queretaro - Toluca
Club Queretaro: Win 5.50 Club Queretaro: Draw 4.33 Toluca Win: 1.57 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.15 Individualnyy total golov Club Queretaro bolshe 0.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Club Queretaro menshe 0.5: 2.50 Individualnyy t…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
15
Statistics
24
Lineups
24
min
Event
Player
Team
45+2'
45+2' Yellow Card | L. Abascia
Club Queretaro
58'
58' Substitution 4 | M. Isais | assist/sub out: J. Gallardo
Toluca
59'
59' Substitution 5 | Helinho | assist/sub out: A. Vega
M. D. Espinoza Acosta
Toluca
62'
62' Substitution 6 | J. Cazares | assist/sub out: F. Venegas
Club Queretaro
72'
72' Substitution 7 | J. Diaz | assist/sub out: S. Cordova
Toluca
76'
76' Normal Goal | A. Avila | assist/sub out: Jhojan Julio
Club Queretaro
79'
79' Substitution 9 | D. Barbosa | assist/sub out: S. Simon
Toluca
79'
79' Substitution 10 | J. Angulo | assist/sub out: F. Rossi
Toluca
Metric
Club Queretaro
Toluca
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.06
2.26
final
Zablokirovannye udary
1
8
final
Shots off target
3
10
final
Shots on target
6
5
final
Udary vsego
10
23
final
Fouls soversheno
12
6
final
Zheltye kartochki
3
1
final
Offsides
1
2
final
Club Queretaro
#2 D. Barbosa, #5 F. Romero, #6 F. Pereira, #8 N. Castro, #10 J. Angulo, #11 Helinho, #17 M. Isaís, #22 L. García, #25 E. López, #29 J. Díaz
Toluca
#2 L. Abascia, #9 D. Reyes, #31 A. Ávila
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Ávila
Toluca
football.player.assists
0
A. Ávila
Toluca
Dribling popytki
4
A. Ávila
Toluca
Dribling uspeshno
1
A. Ávila
Toluca
Edinoborstva vyigrano
11
A. Ávila
Toluca
Fouls soversheno
1
A. Ávila
Toluca
football.player.goals
1
A. Ávila
Toluca
Conceded golov
1
A. Ávila
Toluca
Seyvy
0
A. Ávila
Toluca
football.player.minutes_played
89
A. Ávila
Toluca
Tochnost pasov %
1
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Club Queretaro
16.6%
16.5%
Draw
22.6%
23.5%
draw risk
Toluca
60.8%
60.0%
market and model agree
xG
-
0.77 : 1.72
Total 2.5
Over 80.5%
-
Under 19.5%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.01
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
16.5% / 23.5% / 60.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,429 / 1,685
Club Queretaro / Toluca
RD
77 / 74
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.54
market consensus · no value · model 60.0%
X
4.04
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
5.42
market consensus · no value · model 16.5%
Double chance
X2
1.13
market consensus · no value · model 83.5%
12
1.21
market consensus · no value · model 76.5%
1X
2.36
market consensus · no value · model 40.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.15
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.01
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.54
market consensus · line only
2 +1
1.95
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.72
market consensus · value +38.5% · model 80.5%
Under 2.5
2.10
market consensus · no value · model 19.5%
Both teams to score
No
1.96
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.76
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.70 17.5% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.37 18.6% | 5.75 17.4% | 5.60 17.9% | 5.50 18.2% | |
| X | 4.10 24.4% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.10 24.4% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.10 24.4% |
| 1.54 64.9% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.53 65.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet | Unibet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.95 51.3% | 1.96 51.0% | 1.96 51.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.93 51.8% | 2.02 49.5% | 1.95 51.3% |
| yes | 1.77 56.5% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.75 57.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.13 88.5% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.16 86.2% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.12 89.3% |
| home_away | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| home_draw | 2.40 41.7% | 2.35 42.6% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.35 42.6% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — | 1.19 84.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.73 57.8% | 1.77 56.5% | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 1.99 50.3% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.80 35.7% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.25 19.1% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.00 10.0% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 4.00 25.0% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.12 47.2% | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 1.90 52.6% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.42 70.4% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.15 87.0% | — | — |
Match center
Club Queretaro
Founded
1950
Toluca
Founded
1917
Match center
Full head-to-head historyClub Queretaro - Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form