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Liga MX
Liga MX Mexico
05.04.2026 01:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 01:00 UTC
Finished

Liga MX

Mexico

Cruz Azul - Pachuca

Mexico Football
Stadium Atsteka
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
1 : 2
Finished
Pachuca
Pachuca
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Cruz Azul — 48%

1 · Cruz Azul48.4%
X · draw25.9%
2 · Pachuca25.7%

Model estimate: win Cruz Azul 48.4%, draw 25.9%, win Pachuca 25.7%. Model favourite — Cruz Azul.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cruz Azul - Pachuca April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cruz Azul.

Strongest: Cruz Azul - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.55 / X 4.04 / 2 5.26
  • 1X2 market: Cruz Azul 59.5% / X 22.9% / Pachuca 17.6%
  • Glicko: Cruz Azul 48.4% / X 25.9% / Pachuca 25.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 81.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 59.6%
X 22.9%
2 17.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 56.3%
Under 2.5 43.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 55.1%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 01:00 UTC
Stadium Atsteka (Mekhiko)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Cruz Azul 48%
💹 Market Cruz Azul 5946%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Cruz Azul - Pachuca

Cruz Azul: Win 1.85 Cruz Azul: Draw 4.00 Pachuca Win: 3.70 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.70 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Cruz Azul bolshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Cruz Azul menshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Pachuca …

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 18
Statistics 26
Lineups 16
min Event Player Team
5' 5' Normal Goal | Kenedy Arthur Machado Barreto Pachuca
23' 23' Yellow Card | G. Piovi F. Santi Cruz Azul
32' 32' Substitution 1 | J. Rodarte | assist/sub out: O. Campos Cruz Azul
45' 45' Normal Goal | C. Ebere Cruz Azul
58' 58' Normal Goal | Kenedy Arthur Machado Barreto Pachuca
61' 61' Substitution 4 | L. Romero | assist/sub out: G. Fernandez Cruz Azul
69' 69' Substitution 2 | Kenedy | assist/sub out: A. Dominguez Arthur Machado Barreto Pachuca
69' 69' Substitution 4 | S. Rondon | assist/sub out: E. Valencia A. Sieb Pachuca
Metric Cruz Azul Pachuca SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.98 1.06 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final
Shots off target 13 6 final
Shots on target 5 4 final
Udary vsego 20 12 final
Fouls soversheno 6 12 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Cruz Azul #23 S. Rondón
Pachuca #1 A. GudiG±o, #4 Willer Ditta, #7 N. IbGЎG±ez, #11 C. Ebere, #16 J. MGЎrquez, #18 L. Romero, #20 J. Paradela, #33 G. Piovi
Player Team Metric SStats
Ariel Castro Sevilla Seyvy 0
Jorge Rodarte Barragan football.player.assists 0
Jorge Rodarte Barragan Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
Jorge Rodarte Barragan Seyvy 0
Jorge Rodarte Barragan football.player.minutes_played 32
Jorge Rodarte Barragan Klyuchevye pasy 17
Jorge Rodarte Barragan Reyting (staryy) 6.2
Jorge Rodarte Barragan Shots on target 1
Jorge Rodarte Barragan Otbory vsego 14
Josué Díaz Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cruz Azul 60.7% 48.4% market and model agree
Draw 22.5% 25.9% draw risk
Pachuca 16.9% 25.7%
xG - 1.51 : 1.02
Total 2.5 Over 81.0% - Under 19.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.12
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.12

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 48.4% / 25.9% / 25.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,656 / 1,524 Cruz Azul / Pachuca
RD 74 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.26 market consensus · no value · model 25.7%
X 4.04 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 48.4%
Double chance
X2 2.33 market consensus · value +20.2% · model 51.6%
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 74.1%
1X 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 74.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.39 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.86 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.15 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.70 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · value +35.3% · model 81.0%
Under 2.5 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 19.0%
Both teams to score
No 2.01 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.20 23.8% 4.10 24.4% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.10 24.4%
5.30 18.9% 5.00 20.0% 4.89 20.5% 5.75 17.4% 5.70 17.5% 5.50 18.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 1.97 50.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 1.94 51.6% 2.08 48.1% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.77 56.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.61 62.1% 1.73 57.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 2.35 42.6% 2.25 44.4% 2.38 42.0% 2.42 41.3% 2.40 41.7% 2.25 44.4%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.15 87.0% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.16 86.2% 1.13 88.5% 1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — — 1.23 81.3%
Over 2.0 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.91 52.4% —
Over 3.5 2.65 37.7% — —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.98 50.5% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Match center
Cruz Azul
Founded 1927
Pachuca
Founded 1901
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCruz Azul - Pachuca

Cruz Azul
0 matches total
Pachuca
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.