Match center
Start
05.04.2026 01:00 UTC
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05.04.2026 01:00 UTC
Finished
Liga MX
Leon - Atlas
2
:
0
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Leon — 38%
Model estimate: win Leon 38.0%, draw 28.1%, win Atlas 33.9%. Model favourite — Leon.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Leon - Atlas April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leon.
Strongest: Leon - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.10 / X 3.41 / 2 3.22
- 1X2 market: Leon 44.1% / X 27.1% / Atlas 28.8%
- Glicko: Leon 38.0% / X 28.1% / Atlas 33.9%
- Total 2.5: over probability 80.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.0%
1
44.1%
X
27.2%
2
28.8%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
42.6%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Leon 38%
💹 Market
Leon 4408%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Leon - Atlas
Leon: Win 2.25 Leon: Draw 3.40 Atlas Win: 3.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.95 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.85 Individualnyy total golov Leon bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Leon menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Atlas bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individ…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:0
Events
17
Statistics
26
Lineups
3
min
Event
Player
Team
5'
5' Yellow Card
Leon
8'
8' Yellow Card | R. Schlegel
C. Ngah
Atlas
13'
13' Normal Goal | D. Cambindo
Leon
15'
15' Yellow Card
Leon
27'
27' Yellow Card
Atlas
39'
39' Red Card
Atlas
46'
46' Substitution 1 | I. Moreno | assist/sub out: B. Colula
Leon
57'
57' Substitution 1 | G. Aguirre | assist/sub out: Gustavo Ferrareis
Atlas
Metric
Leon
Atlas
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.63
0.57
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
3
final
Shots off target
8
5
final
Shots on target
6
3
final
Udary vsego
17
11
final
Fouls soversheno
11
9
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
2
final
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Fernando Beltrán
football.player.assists
0
Fernando Beltrán
Dribling popytki
5
Fernando Beltrán
Dribling uspeshno
3
Fernando Beltrán
Edinoborstva vyigrano
7
Fernando Beltrán
Fouls soversheno
2
Fernando Beltrán
Fouls na igroke
2
Fernando Beltrán
Seyvy
0
Fernando Beltrán
football.player.minutes_played
62
Fernando Beltrán
Tochnost pasov %
2
Fernando Beltrán
Klyuchevye pasy
49
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Leon
44.3%
38.0%
market and model agree
Draw
26.8%
28.1%
draw risk
Atlas
28.9%
33.9%
xG
-
1.21 : 1.12
Total 2.5
Over 80.5%
-
Under 19.5%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.06
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
38.0% / 28.1% / 33.9%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,393 / 1,448
Leon / Atlas
RD
75 / 74
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.22
market consensus · no value · model 33.9%
X
3.41
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.10
market consensus · no value · model 38.0%
Double chance
X2
1.68
market consensus · weak value +4.2% · model 62.0%
12
1.28
market consensus · no value · model 71.9%
1X
1.31
market consensus · no value · model 66.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.71
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.31
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.18
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.93
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.83
market consensus · value +47.4% · model 80.5%
Under 2.5
1.98
market consensus · no value · model 19.5%
Both teams to score
No
2.11
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.65
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.10 47.6% | 2.14 46.7% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.18 45.9% | 2.05 48.8% | |
| X | 3.55 28.2% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.42 29.2% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.60 27.8% |
| 3.20 31.3% | 3.05 32.8% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.25 30.8% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet | Unibet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.13 47.0% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.10 47.6% |
| yes | 1.65 60.6% | 1.71 58.5% | 1.64 61.0% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.64 61.0% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.62 61.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.67 59.9% |
| home_away | 1.22 82.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.28 78.1% |
| home_draw | 1.33 75.2% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — | 1.21 82.6% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.27 78.7% |
| Over 2.0 | — | — | 1.35 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.80 55.6% | 1.88 53.2% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.00 33.3% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.75 17.4% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.50 10.5% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.80 26.3% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | 2.01 49.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.38 72.5% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.13 88.5% | — | — |
Match center
Leon
Founded
1944
Atlas
Founded
1916
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLeon - Atlas
Leon
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Leon - Atlas breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form