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Liga MX
Liga MX Mexico
04.04.2026 03:00 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 03:00 UTC
Finished

Liga MX

Mexico

Necaxa - Mazatlán

Mexico Football
Stadium Estadio Victoria
Necaxa
Necaxa
2 : 1
Finished
Mazatlán
Mazatlán

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Necaxa - Mazatlán April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Necaxa.

Line favourite market consensus: Necaxa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.66 / X 3.89 / 2 4.55
  • 1X2 market: Necaxa 55.8% / X 23.8% / Mazatlán 20.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 55.8%
X 23.8%
2 20.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 56.5%
Under 2.5 43.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 03:00 UTC
Match center

Necaxa - Mazatlán

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.55 market consensus · line only
X 3.89 market consensus · line only
1 1.66 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.13 market consensus · line only
12 1.22 market consensus · line only
1X 1.17 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.20 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.40 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.20 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.17 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.10 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.66 60.2% 1.71 58.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9%
X 3.95 25.3% 3.95 25.3% 3.95 25.3% 3.80 26.3% 3.95 25.3% 4.00 25.0%
4.70 21.3% 4.15 24.1% 4.52 22.1% 5.00 20.0% 4.80 20.8% 4.50 22.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.15 46.5% 2.12 47.2% 2.11 47.4% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.08 48.1% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.70 58.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.60 62.5% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 2.15 46.5% 2.12 47.2% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.16 86.2% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.16 86.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% — 1.17 85.5%
Over 1.75 — — 1.23 81.3%
Over 2.0 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.91 52.4% —
Over 3.5 2.62 38.2% — —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.98 50.5% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNecaxa - Mazatlán

Necaxa
0 matches total
Mazatlán
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history