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Liga Pro
Liga Pro Ecuador
05.04.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Liga Pro

Ecuador

Leones del Norte - Delfin SC

Ecuador Football
Stadium Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Capacity 17 260
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Finished
Delfin SC
Delfin SC

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones del Norte - Delfin SC April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leones del Norte.

Line favourite market consensus: Leones del Norte. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.33 / X 2.83 / 2 3.21
  • 1X2 market: Leones del Norte 39.2% / X 32.3% / Delfin SC 28.5%
  • Glicko: Leones del Norte - / X 100.0% / Delfin SC -
  • Total 2.5: over probability 8.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.4%
1 39.2%
X 32.3%
2 28.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 8.2%
Over 2.5 36.7%
Under 2.5 63.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 62.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 18:00 UTC
Stadium Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Capacity 17,260

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Match center

Leones del Norte - Delfin SC

Leones del Norte: Win 2.15 Leones del Norte: Draw 3.00 Delfin SC Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Leones del Norte bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Leones del Norte menshe 1.5: 1.40 Indiv…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 16
Statistics 26
Lineups 3
min Event Player Team
0' 0' Yellow Card | J. Mairongo Leones del Norte
10' 10' Substitution 1 | M. Reyes | assist/sub out: B. Hernández Delfin SC
30' 30' Substitution 1 | C. Solano | assist/sub out: C. Velez Leones del Norte
39' 39' Yellow Card Delfin SC
46' 46' Substitution 2 | J. Morocho | assist/sub out: L. Castro Delfin SC
59' 59' Normal Goal Leones del Norte
60' 60' Substitution 4 | assist/sub out: J. Castillo Delfin SC
65' 65' Yellow Card | E. Griffa Leones del Norte
Metric Leones del Norte Delfin SC SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.22 0.43 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 2 final
Shots off target 2 2 final
Shots on target 2 6 final
Udary vsego 5 10 final
Fouls soversheno 16 8 final
Red cards 1 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
Leones del Norte #32 A. Bedoya
Delfin SC #99 C. Solano
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte football.player.assists 0
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte Dribling popytki 2
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte Seyvy 0
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte Klyuchevye pasy 40
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Bedoya Leones del Norte Otbory vsego 34
C. Solano Delfin SC football.player.assists 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leones del Norte 39.4% - market favourite
Draw 32.4% 100.0% draw risk
Delfin SC 28.2% -
Total 2.5 Over 8.7% - Under 91.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.68
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.68

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
Rating 1,450 / 1,466 Leones del Norte / Delfin SC
RD 148 / 126 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.21 market consensus · line only
X 2.83 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.33 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.54 market consensus · line only
12 1.37 market consensus · line only
1X 1.31 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.60 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.20 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.30 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.52 market consensus · no value · model 8.7%
Under 2.5 1.46 market consensus · value +33.3% · model 91.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.65 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.09 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
2.40 41.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.30 43.5% 2.31 43.3% 2.30 43.5%
X 2.88 34.7% 2.90 34.5% 2.92 34.3% 2.88 34.7% 2.77 36.1% 2.62 38.2%
3.28 30.5% 3.25 30.8% 3.35 29.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.16 31.7% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.64 61.0% 1.67 59.9%
yes 2.07 48.3% 2.20 45.5% 2.07 48.3% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
draw_away 1.52 65.8% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7%
home_away 1.37 73.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.40 71.4%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.27 78.7% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5%
Over 0.75 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.0 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.25 1.30 76.9%
Over 1.5 1.51 66.2%
Over 1.75 1.61 62.1%
Over 2.0 1.84 54.4%
Over 2.25 2.15 46.5%
Over 2.5 2.46 40.7%
Over 2.75 2.97 33.7%
Over 3.0 4.00 25.0%
Over 3.25 4.40 22.7%
Over 3.5 4.80 20.8%
Over 3.75 6.15 16.3%
Over 4.0 9.10 11.0%
Over 4.5 10.50 9.5%
Over 5.5 20.00 5.0%
Under 0.5 5.90 17.0%
Match center
Leones del Norte
Founded 2017
Delfin SC
Founded 1989
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.