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Liga Pro
Liga Pro Ecuador
05.04.2026 20:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 20:30 UTC
Finished

Liga Pro

Ecuador

Manta FC - Tecnico Universitario

Ecuador Football
Stadium Estadio Jocay
Capacity 17 834
Manta FC
Manta FC
0 : 2
Finished
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Manta FC — 38%

1 · Manta FC37.9%
X · draw28.8%
2 · Tecnico Universitario33.3%

Model estimate: win Manta FC 37.9%, draw 28.8%, win Tecnico Universitario 33.3%. Model favourite — Manta FC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manta FC - Tecnico Universitario April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manta FC.

Strongest: Manta FC - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.37 / X 2.99 / 2 2.95
  • 1X2 market: Manta FC 38.5% / X 30.6% / Tecnico Universitario 31.0%
  • Glicko: Manta FC 37.9% / X 28.8% / Tecnico Universitario 33.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 8.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5%
1 38.5%
X 30.5%
2 30.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.7%
Over 2.5 39.9%
Under 2.5 60.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 29.4%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 20:30 UTC
Stadium Estadio Jocay (Manta)
Capacity 17,834

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Manta FC 38%
💹 Market Manta FC 3848%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Manta FC - Tecnico Universitario

Manta FC: Win 2.38 Manta FC: Draw 3.00 Tecnico Universitario Win: 3.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Manta FC bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Manta FC menshe 1.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golo…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 19
Statistics 26
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
41' 41' Yellow Card Manta FC
58' 58' Substitution 1 | M. Valencia | assist/sub out: D. Cabezas Manta FC
67' 67' Yellow Card | K. Arce Tecnico Universitario
70' 70' Normal Goal | J. Anaya Tecnico Universitario
73' 73' Substitution 5 | A. Medina | assist/sub out: J. Mina Manta FC
73' 73' Substitution 3 | J. Jimenez | assist/sub out: E. Beltramone Manta FC
73' 73' Substitution 4 | A. Medina | assist/sub out: J. Mina Manta FC
78' 78' Yellow Card Tecnico Universitario
Metric Manta FC Tecnico Universitario SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.78 0.89 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 5 final
Shots off target 9 5 final
Shots on target 5 2 final
Udary vsego 17 12 final
Fouls soversheno 15 17 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 4 final
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Manta FC 38.7% 37.9% market and model agree
Draw 30.2% 28.8% draw risk
Tecnico Universitario 31.2% 33.3%
xG - 1.16 : 1.07
Total 2.5 Over 8.8% - Under 91.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.9% / 28.8% / 33.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,430 / 1,519 Manta FC / Tecnico Universitario
RD 129 / 127 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.95 market consensus · no value · model 33.3%
X 2.99 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 37.9%
Double chance
X2 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 62.1%
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 71.2%
1X 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 66.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.18 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.00 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.77 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.35 market consensus · no value · model 8.8%
Under 2.5 1.56 market consensus · value +42.3% · model 91.2%
Both teams to score
No 1.74 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.96 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
2.42 41.3% 2.38 42.0% 2.42 41.3% 2.30 43.5% 2.33 42.9% 2.38 42.0%
X 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 2.98 33.6% 2.75 36.4%
3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 2.90 34.5% 2.89 34.6% 2.90 34.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1%
yes 1.94 51.6% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 1.94 51.6% 1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
draw_away 1.51 66.2% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.35 74.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25 1.23 81.3%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5%
Over 1.75 1.50 66.7%
Over 2.0 1.69 59.2%
Over 2.25 1.96 51.0%
Over 2.5 2.34 42.7%
Over 2.75 2.69 37.2%
Over 3.0 3.50 28.6%
Over 3.25 3.96 25.3%
Over 3.5 4.40 22.7%
Over 3.75 5.65 17.7%
Over 4.0 8.50 11.8%
Over 4.5 9.30 10.8%
Over 5.5 18.00 5.6%
Over 6.5 50.00 2.0%
Match center
Manta FC
Founded 1998
Tecnico Universitario
Founded 1971
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.