Match center
Start
04.04.2026 20:30 UTC
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04.04.2026 20:30 UTC
Finished
Liga Profesional Argentina
Independiente - Racing Club
1
:
0
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Independiente — 43%
Model estimate: win Independiente 42.6%, draw 29.2%, win Racing Club 28.2%. Model favourite — Independiente.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Independiente - Racing Club April 4, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente.
Strongest: Independiente - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.42 / X 2.99 / 2 3.10
- 1X2 market: Independiente 38.6% / X 31.2% / Racing Club 30.2%
- Glicko: Independiente 42.6% / X 29.2% / Racing Club 28.2%
- Total 2.5: over probability 77.4%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.0%
1
38.6%
X
31.2%
2
30.1%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 7.1%
Over 2.5
37.3%
Under 2.5
62.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
30.6%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Independiente 43%
💹 Market
Independiente 3857%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Independiente - Racing Club
Independiente: Win 2.30 Independiente: Draw 3.00 Racing Club Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Independiente bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Independiente menshe 1.5: 1.40 Individualnyy …
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
14
Statistics
22
Lineups
15
min
Event
Player
Team
21'
21' Yellow Card
Racing Club
36'
36' Penalty confirmed | T. Conechny
Racing Club
39'
39' Yellow Card | S. Valdez
F. Konate
Independiente
45+5'
45+5' Yellow Card
Racing Club
58'
58' Yellow Card | S. Montiel
Independiente
58'
58' Substitution 1 | L. Millan | assist/sub out: M. Perez Curci
Independiente
73'
73' Substitution 1 | T. Conechny | assist/sub out: D. Vergara
Racing Club
80'
80' Substitution 3 | F. Valdez | assist/sub out: M. Gutierrez
Independiente
Metric
Independiente
Racing Club
SStats
Zablokirovannye udary
4
3
final
Shots off target
1
6
final
Shots on target
3
1
final
Udary vsego
8
10
final
Fouls soversheno
9
15
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
3
final
Offsides
0
1
final
Ball possession, %
50
50
final
Independiente
#2 A. Garcia, #3 M. Di Cesare, #6 M. Rojo, #13 S. Sosa, #24 A. Fernandez, #25 F. Cambeses, #28 S. Solari
Racing Club
#4 Santiago Arias, #22 F. Zabala
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
F. Zabala
Racing Club
football.player.assists
0
F. Zabala
Racing Club
Dribling popytki
5
F. Zabala
Racing Club
Dribling uspeshno
3
F. Zabala
Racing Club
Edinoborstva vyigrano
11
F. Zabala
Racing Club
Fouls na igroke
1
F. Zabala
Racing Club
Seyvy
0
F. Zabala
Racing Club
football.player.minutes_played
90
F. Zabala
Racing Club
Klyuchevye pasy
36
F. Zabala
Racing Club
Reyting (staryy)
6.7
F. Zabala
Racing Club
Bloki
3
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Independiente
37.9%
42.6%
market and model agree
Draw
32.2%
29.2%
draw risk
Racing Club
29.9%
28.2%
xG
-
1.22 : 0.93
Total 2.5
Over 77.4%
-
Under 22.6%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
42.6% / 29.2% / 28.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,526 / 1,590
Independiente / Racing Club
RD
102 / 103
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.10
market consensus · no value · model 28.2%
X
2.99
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.42
market consensus · no value · model 42.6%
Double chance
X2
1.52
market consensus · no value · model 57.4%
12
1.36
market consensus · no value · model 70.8%
1X
1.36
market consensus · no value · model 71.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.60
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.19
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.13
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.67
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.50
market consensus · weak value +93.6% · model 77.4%
Under 2.5
1.49
market consensus · no value · model 22.6%
Both teams to score
No
1.70
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.05
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.30 43.5% | 2.36 42.4% | 2.68 37.3% | 2.63 38.0% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.35 42.6% | |
| X | 3.00 33.3% | 2.99 33.4% | 2.92 34.3% | 2.80 35.7% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.05 32.8% |
| 3.30 30.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.75 36.4% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.40 29.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.73 57.8% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.61 62.1% | 1.81 55.3% |
| yes | 2.00 50.0% | 2.08 48.1% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.15 46.5% | 1.89 52.9% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.57 63.7% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.57 63.7% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
| home_draw | 1.30 76.9% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.33 75.2% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.10 90.9% | — | 1.07 93.5% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.14 87.7% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.34 74.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.50 66.7% | — | 1.56 64.1% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.69 59.2% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.92 52.1% | — |
| Over 2.5 | 2.45 40.8% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 4.75 21.1% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.50 10.5% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.50 15.4% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 2.55 39.2% | — | — |
| Under 2.0 | — | 1.96 51.0% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.53 65.4% | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.18 84.8% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.05 95.2% | — | — |
Match center
Independiente
Founded
1905
Racing Club
Founded
1903
Match center
Full head-to-head historyIndependiente - Racing Club
Independiente
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form