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Ligat Ha'al
Ligat Ha'al Israel
05.04.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Ligat Ha'al

Israel

Ashdod - Maccabi Netanya

Israel Football
Stadium Yud-Alef Stadium
Capacity 7 980
Ashdod
Ashdod
2 : 3
Finished
Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Netanya
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Maccabi Netanya — 45%

1 · Ashdod29.0%
X · draw25.5%
2 · Maccabi Netanya45.5%

Model estimate: win Ashdod 29.0%, draw 25.5%, win Maccabi Netanya 45.5%. Model favourite — Maccabi Netanya.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ashdod - Maccabi Netanya April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Maccabi Netanya.

Strongest: Maccabi Netanya - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.81 / X 3.38 / 2 2.22
  • 1X2 market: Ashdod 32.3% / X 26.8% / Maccabi Netanya 40.8%
  • Glicko: Ashdod 29.0% / X 25.5% / Maccabi Netanya 45.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 80.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.2%
1 32.3%
X 26.8%
2 40.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.1%
Over 2.5 55.6%
Under 2.5 44.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 43.3%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Stadium Yud-Alef Stadium (Ashdod)
Capacity 7,980

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Maccabi Netanya 45%
💹 Market Maccabi Netanya 4082%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Ashdod - Maccabi Netanya

Ashdod: Win 2.80 Ashdod: Draw 3.40 Maccabi Netanya Win: 2.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.15 Individualnyy total golov Ashdod bolshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Ashdod menshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Maccabi Neta…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:3
Events 20
Statistics 22
Lineups 3
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Normal Goal | K. Kimvuidi Ashdod
21' 21' Yellow Card | V. Ochayi Ashdod
28' 28' Normal Goal | A. Mendy Santiago Pedro Franchini Ashdod
30' 30' Substitution 1 | D. Kulikov | assist/sub out: I. Ben Shabat Maccabi Netanya
30' 30' Substitution 2 | G. Diomandé | assist/sub out: A. Ouattara Maccabi Netanya
37' 37' Normal Goal | M. Levi | assist/sub out: W. Cyprien Maccabi Netanya
43' 43' Normal Goal | B. Zaarura | assist/sub out: W. Cyprien Maccabi Netanya
56' 56' Substitution 3 | W. Cyprien | assist/sub out: O. Bilu I. Sissoko Maccabi Netanya
Metric Ashdod Maccabi Netanya SStats
Zablokirovannye udary 7 3 final
Shots off target 5 2 final
Shots on target 3 4 final
Udary vsego 15 9 final
Fouls soversheno 10 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 4 1 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Ball possession, % 59 41 final
Maccabi Netanya #11 E. Almog, #94 Arial Mendy
Player Team Metric SStats
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya Dribling popytki 3
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya Dribling uspeshno 2
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya Edinoborstva vsego 1
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya Edinoborstva vyigrano 7
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya Fouls soversheno 1
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya Fouls na igroke 2
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya football.player.goals 1
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya Seyvy 0
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya football.player.minutes_played 93
Arial Mendy Maccabi Netanya Tochnost pasov % 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ashdod 31.7% 29.0%
Draw 27.0% 25.5% draw risk
Maccabi Netanya 41.3% 45.5% market and model agree
xG - 1.16 : 1.52
Total 2.5 Over 80.5% - Under 19.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 29.0% / 25.5% / 45.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,436 / 1,492 Ashdod / Maccabi Netanya
RD 81 / 80 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 45.5%
X 3.38 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.81 market consensus · no value · model 29.0%
Double chance
X2 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 71.0%
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
1X 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 54.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.42 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.19 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.28 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.68 market consensus · value +35.3% · model 80.5%
Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · no value · model 19.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.26 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.85 35.1% 2.59 38.6% 2.89 34.6% 2.70 37.0% 2.87 34.8% 2.80 35.7%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.40 29.4% 3.42 29.2% 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0% 3.30 30.3%
2.28 43.9% 2.13 47.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Unibet
no 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.28 43.9% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.24 44.6% 2.49 40.2% 2.14 46.7%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.56 64.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.56 64.1% 1.54 64.9% 1.56 64.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.40 71.4% 1.37 73.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — — 1.23 81.3%
Over 2.0 — — 1.30 76.9%
Over 2.25 — — 1.49 67.1%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% — 1.71 58.5%
Over 2.75 — 1.87 53.5% —
Over 3.5 2.75 36.4% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.90 25.6% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.85 54.1% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Match center
Ashdod
Founded 1999
Maccabi Netanya
Founded 1934
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAshdod - Maccabi Netanya

Ashdod
0 matches total
Maccabi Netanya
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.