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Ligat Ha'al
Ligat Ha'al Israel
05.04.2026 17:15 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 17:15 UTC
Finished

Ligat Ha'al

Israel

Hapoel Haifa - Maccabi Tel Aviv

Israel Football
Stadium Sammy Ofer Stadium
Capacity 30 820
Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
1 : 4
Finished
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Maccabi Tel Aviv — 58%

1 · Hapoel Haifa18.8%
market18%
X · draw23.0%
market22%
2 · Maccabi Tel Aviv ✓ Pick58.2%
market60%

Model estimate: win Hapoel Haifa 18.8%, draw 23.0%, win Maccabi Tel Aviv 58.2%. Model favourite — Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hapoel Haifa - Maccabi Tel Aviv April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Strongest: Maccabi Tel Aviv - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.96 / X 4.11 / 2 1.52
  • 1X2 market: Hapoel Haifa 18.3% / X 22.1% / Maccabi Tel Aviv 59.6%
  • Glicko: Hapoel Haifa 18.8% / X 23.0% / Maccabi Tel Aviv 58.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 81.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.3%
1 18.3%
X 22.1%
2 ✓ Pick 59.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.5%
Over 2.5 60.4%
Under 2.5 39.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 59.4%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 17:15 UTC
Stadium Sammy Ofer Stadium (Haifa)
Capacity 30,820

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Maccabi Tel Aviv 58%
💹 Market Maccabi Tel Aviv 5961%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Hapoel Haifa - Maccabi Tel Aviv

Hapoel Haifa: Win 4.75 Hapoel Haifa: Draw 3.60 Maccabi Tel Aviv Win: 1.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Hapoel Haifa bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Hapoel Haifa menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:4
Events 21
Statistics 22
Lineups 18
min Event Player Team
23' 23' Yellow Card | L. Serdal Hapoel Haifa
27' 27' Normal Goal | D. Peretz Maccabi Tel Aviv
29' 29' Yellow Card | D. Peretz Maccabi Tel Aviv
30' 30' Yellow Card | R. Revivo Maccabi Tel Aviv
30' 30' Yellow Card | A. Turgeman P. Maybach Hapoel Haifa
35' 35' Yellow Card | I. Kričak Hapoel Haifa
38' 38' Normal Goal | I. Shahar Maccabi Tel Aviv
45+1' 45+1' Normal Goal | O. Davida Maccabi Tel Aviv
Metric Hapoel Haifa Maccabi Tel Aviv SStats
Zablokirovannye udary 6 3 final
Shots off target 1 3 final
Shots on target 1 10 final
Udary vsego 8 16 final
Fouls soversheno 7 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 3 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Ball possession, % 44 56 final
Hapoel Haifa #3 R. Revivo, #6 T. Asante, #21 N. Ben Harush, #22 O. Melika, #30 I. Noy, #34 S. Farhi, #36 I. Shahar, #77 O. Davida
Maccabi Tel Aviv #1 Y. Gerafi, #17 Alon Turgeman, #49 A. Radulovic
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv Dribling popytki 3
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv Edinoborstva vsego 2
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv Fouls soversheno 2
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv Seyvy 0
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv football.player.minutes_played 71
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv Klyuchevye pasy 8
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv Reyting (staryy) 6.5
A. Radulovic Maccabi Tel Aviv Otbory vsego 6
Alon Turgeman Maccabi Tel Aviv Dribling popytki 3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Hapoel Haifa 18.1% 18.8%
Draw 21.7% 23.0% draw risk
Maccabi Tel Aviv 60.2% 58.2% market and model agree
xG - 0.91 : 1.79
Total 2.5 Over 81.5% - Under 18.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 18.8% / 23.0% / 58.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,453 / 1,639 Hapoel Haifa / Maccabi Tel Aviv
RD 80 / 86 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 58.2%
X 4.11 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.96 market consensus · no value · model 18.8%
Double chance
X2 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 81.2%
12 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 77.0%
1X 2.31 market consensus · no value · model 41.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.16 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.91 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 5.25 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.54 market consensus · value +25.5% · model 81.5%
Under 2.5 2.35 market consensus · no value · model 18.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.17 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.62 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
5.30 18.9% 4.60 21.7% 4.99 20.0% 5.00 20.0% 4.85 20.6% 5.00 20.0%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.05 24.7% 4.25 23.5% 3.80 26.3% 4.10 24.4% 4.20 23.8%
1.52 65.8% 1.46 68.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.47 68.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Unibet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.17 46.1% 2.18 45.9% 2.10 47.6% 2.18 45.9% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.57 63.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.61 62.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.63 61.4% 1.56 64.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.09 91.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0%
home_draw 2.40 41.7% 2.31 43.3% 2.25 44.4% 2.35 42.6% 2.40 41.7% 2.31 43.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.03 97.1% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8% — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.75 — — 1.16 86.2%
Over 2.0 — — 1.21 82.6%
Over 2.25 — — 1.37 73.0%
Over 2.5 1.55 64.5% — 1.56 64.1%
Over 3.0 — 1.85 54.1% —
Over 3.5 2.38 42.0% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.50 22.2% — —
Under 2.5 2.35 42.6% — —
Under 3.0 — 1.87 53.5% —
Under 3.5 1.53 65.4% — —
Match center
Hapoel Haifa
Founded 1924
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Founded 1906
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.