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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
05.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Angers - Lyon

France Football
Stadium Maiden Castle
Angers
Angers
0 : 0
Finished
Lyon
Lyon
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lyon — 54%

1 · Angers20.6%
X · draw25.6%
2 · Lyon53.8%

Model estimate: win Angers 20.6%, draw 25.6%, win Lyon 53.8%. Model favourite — Lyon.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Angers - Lyon April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Strongest: Lyon - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.23 / X 3.97 / 2 1.64
  • 1X2 market: Angers 18.2% / X 23.9% / Lyon 57.9%
  • Glicko: Angers 20.6% / X 25.6% / Lyon 53.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 35.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 18.2%
X 23.9%
2 57.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 51.3%
Under 2.5 48.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 54.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Maiden Castle (Durham)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lyon 54%
💹 Market Lyon 5788%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Angers - Lyon

Angers: Win 4.75 Angers: Draw 3.90 Lyon Win: 1.67 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Angers bolshe 0.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Angers menshe 0.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Lyon bolshe 1.5: 1.80 I…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 12
Statistics 24
Lineups 37
min Event Player Team
47' 47' Yellow Card | Yassin Belkhdim Angers
55' 55' Substitution 1 | Pavel Šulc | assist/sub out: Roman Yaremchuk Lyon
64' 64' Substitution 2 | Corentin Tolisso | assist/sub out: Rachid Ghezzal Santiago Paz Lyon
66' 66' Yellow Card | Branco van den Boomen Angers
68' 68' Substitution 1 | Lanroy Machine | assist/sub out: Prosper Peter Angers
73' 73' Substitution 3 | Endrick | assist/sub out: Adam Karabec Lyon
73' 73' Substitution 4 | Ainsley Maitland-Niles | assist/sub out: Khalis Merah Vinicius Junior Lyon
73' 73' Substitution 5 | Ainsley Maitland-Niles | assist/sub out: Khalis Merah Vinicius Junior Lyon
Metric Angers Lyon SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.29 0.73 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 5 final
Shots off target 2 4 final
Shots on target 1 2 final
Udary vsego 7 11 final
Fouls soversheno 14 13 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 0 final
Offsides 1 0 final
Angers #3 J. Ekomié, #4 O. Camara, #7 A. Sbaï, #8 B. van den Boomen, #12 H. Koffi, #14 Y. Belkhdim, #20 M. Louãr, #21 J. Lefort, #27 L. Rao-Lisoa, #36 L. Machine, #93 H. Belkebla
Lyon #1 D. Greif, #6 T. Tessmann, #8 C. Tolisso, #9 Endrick, #10 P. Sulc, #16 Abner, #17 Afonso Moreira, #19 Moussa Niakhaté, #22 Clinton Mata, #23 T. Morton, #98 A. Maitland-Niles
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Karabec Lyon football.player.assists 0
A. Karabec Lyon Dribling popytki 1
A. Karabec Lyon Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
A. Karabec Lyon Fouls soversheno 1
A. Karabec Lyon Seyvy 0
A. Karabec Lyon football.player.minutes_played 17
A. Karabec Lyon Klyuchevye pasy 7
A. Karabec Lyon Reyting (staryy) 6.7
A. Karabec Lyon Otbory vsego 7
A. Karabec Lyon Yellow cards 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Angers 19.0% 20.6%
Draw 25.4% 25.6% draw risk
Lyon 55.5% 53.8% market and model agree
xG - 0.85 : 1.55
Total 2.5 Over 35.2% - Under 64.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 20.6% / 25.6% / 53.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,458 / 1,573 Angers / Lyon
RD 77 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 53.8%
X 3.97 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 5.23 market consensus · no value · model 20.6%
Double chance
X2 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 79.4%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.4%
1X 2.26 market consensus · weak value +4.5% · model 46.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.12 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 35.2%
Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · value +27.1% · model 64.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
5.10 19.6% 5.00 20.0% 5.74 17.4% 5.00 20.0% 5.25 19.1% 5.50 18.2%
X 3.95 25.3% 4.20 23.8% 4.22 23.7% 3.80 26.3% 4.20 23.8% 4.20 23.8%
1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.65 60.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.15 87.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.13 88.5%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 2.20 45.5% 2.37 42.2% 2.25 44.4% 2.15 46.5% 2.32 43.1% 2.25 44.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Over 2.25 — 1.72 58.1% —
Over 2.5 1.83 54.6% 1.86 53.8% —
Over 2.75 — 2.07 48.3% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.70 27.0% — —
Under 2.25 — 2.18 45.9% —
Under 2.5 1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0% —
Under 2.75 — 1.83 54.6% —
Under 3.5 1.36 73.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
Angers
Founded 1919
Lyon
Founded 1950
Match center
Angers
AB A. Bamba Injury
CA C. Arcus Groin Injury
Lyon
NT N. Tagliafico Red Card
EN E. Nuamah Knee Injury
Angers Founded: 1919
Lyon Founded: 1950
Match center
Angers
L L W L L
20.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Angers 1:5 LensLens
14.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Angers 0:2 NiceNice
07.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Angers 1:0 NantesNantes
28.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Angers 0:2 MonacoMonaco
22.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Angers 0:1 LilleLille
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.4 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Lyon
L D D L L
22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:2 MonacoMonaco
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
08.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
01.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:3 MarseilleMarseille
22.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.8 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAngers - Lyon

Angers
2 matches total
Lyon
Angers: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lyon: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Lion 0:2 (17.05 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 17.05 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

19.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Angers
0:1
Lion
17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Angers
0:2
Lion
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.