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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
14.12.2025 16:15 UTC Match prediction
14.12.2025 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Auxerre - Lille

France Football
Auxerre
Auxerre
3 : 4
Finished
Lille
Lille

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Auxerre - Lille December 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Line favourite market consensus: Lille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.22 / X 3.41 / 2 1.93
  • 1X2 market: Auxerre 22.6% / X 27.9% / Lille 49.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 22.6%
X 28.0%
2 49.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 45.0%
Under 2.5 55.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.12.2025 16:15 UTC
Match center

Auxerre - Lille

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.93 market consensus · line only
X 3.42 market consensus · line only
1 4.23 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.23 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.89 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.24 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.75 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.84 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
4.39 22.8%
X 3.49 28.7%
1.94 51.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.10 24.4% 4.05 24.7% 4.40 22.7% 4.00 25.0% 4.33 23.1% 4.40 22.7%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.70 27.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.45 29.0%
1.94 51.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.99 50.3% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.85 54.1% 2.03 49.3% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.89 52.9%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2% 1.91 52.4% 1.92 52.1% 1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1%
Match center
Auxerre
W D D L L
07.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 3:1 MetzMetz
29.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
23.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:0 LionLion
09.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:2 AngersAngers
01.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
5 Points
Lille
W W W L W
05.12 20:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:0 MarseilleMarseille
30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:0 Le HavreLe Havre
23.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 4:2 Paris FCParis FC
09.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 0:2 StrasbourgStrasbourg
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:0 AngersAngers
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAuxerre - Lille

Auxerre
1 matches total
Lille
Auxerre: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lille: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lille 1:3 (20.04 13:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 20.04 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

20.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre
1:3
Lille