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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
23.11.2025 14:00 UTC Match prediction
23.11.2025 14:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Auxerre - Lyon

France Football
Auxerre
Auxerre
0 : 0
Finished
Lyon
Lyon

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Auxerre - Lyon November 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Line favourite market consensus: Lyon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.61 / X 3.34 / 2 2.10
  • 1X2 market: Auxerre 26.3% / X 28.4% / Lyon 45.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 26.3%
X 28.4%
2 45.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 45.2%
Under 2.5 54.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.11.2025 14:00 UTC
Match center

Auxerre - Lyon

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.11 market consensus · line only
X 3.34 market consensus · line only
1 3.62 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.29 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 1.75 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.08 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.17 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.75 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.92 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.68 27.2%
X 3.33 30.0%
2.19 45.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.55 28.2% 3.60 27.8% 3.78 26.5% 3.50 28.6% 3.70 27.0% 3.65 27.4%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.52 28.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.35 29.9%
2.10 47.6% 2.09 47.9% 2.14 46.7% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.88 53.2% 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.89 52.9% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.32 75.8%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.35 74.1%
home_draw 1.70 58.8% 1.79 55.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6%
Match center
Auxerre
L L L L D
09.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:2 AngersAngers
01.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
26.10 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 Le HavreLe Havre
19.10 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 2:2 RennesRennes
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
1 Points
Lyon
L D D W L
09.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
02.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 3:3 Paris FCParis FC
26.10 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
18.10 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:3 NiceNice
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAuxerre - Lyon

Auxerre
2 matches total
Lyon
Auxerre: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Lyon: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Lion 1:3 (13.04 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 13.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (27.10 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 5
5 Goals conceded 3

Match history

13.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre
1:3
Lion
27.10 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre
2:2
Lion