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Ligue 1 France

11.04.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction

11.04.2026 17:00 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Auxerre - Nantes

France Football

Stadium Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Capacity 23 467

Auxerre

0 : 0

Finished

Nantes

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Auxerre — 47%

1 · Auxerre47.3%

X · draw27.4%

2 · Nantes25.3%

Model estimate: win Auxerre 47.3%, draw 27.4%, win Nantes 25.3%. Model favourite — Auxerre.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Auxerre - Nantes April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Auxerre.

Strongest: Auxerre - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.97 / X 3.32 / 2 4.14
1X2 market: Auxerre 48.3% / X 28.7% / Nantes 23.0%
Glicko: Auxerre 47.3% / X 27.4% / Nantes 25.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 37.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 48.3%

X 28.7%

2 23.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 41.9%

Under 2.5 58.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 48.5%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 11.04.2026 17:00 UTC

Stadium Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps (Auxerre)

Capacity 23,467

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Auxerre 47%

💹 Market Auxerre 4833%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Auxerre - Nantes

Auxerre: Win 1.95 Auxerre: Draw 3.40 Nantes Win: 4.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Auxerre bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Auxerre menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Nantes bolshe 0.5…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 11

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

4' 4' Yellow Card | Ignatius Ganago F. Sacko Nantes

16' 16' Yellow Card | Johann Lepenant Nantes

67' 67' Substitution 1 | Danny Namaso | assist/sub out: Sékou Mara Francisca Jorge Auxerre

73' 73' Substitution 1 | Francis Coquelin | assist/sub out: Ibrahima Sissoko M. Sels Nantes

74' 74' Substitution 2 | Dehmaine Tabibou | assist/sub out: Fabien Centonze Nantes

77' 77' Substitution 2 | Romain Faivre | assist/sub out: Naouirou Ahamada Auxerre

77' 77' Substitution 3 | Romain Faivre | assist/sub out: Naouirou Ahamada Auxerre

81' 81' Substitution 3 | Matthis Abline | assist/sub out: Mostafa Mohamed Nantes

Metric Auxerre Nantes SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.66 1.73 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final

Shots off target 3 7 final

Shots on target 0 4 final

Udary vsego 5 13 final

Fouls soversheno 20 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 4 final

Offsides 2 2 final

Auxerre #1 Anthony Lopes, #2 Ali Youssef, #3 Nicolas Cozza, #8 Johann Lepenant, #10 Matthis Abline, #13 F. Coquelin, #17 Dehmaine Tabibou, #21 Mohamed Kaba, #24 F. Guilbert, #27 Deiver Machado, #37 Ignatius Kpene Ganago

Nantes #5 K. Danois, #10 L. Sinayoko, #14 G. Mensah, #19 D. Namaso, #20 S. Diomandé, #22 F. Oppegård, #24 B. Okoh, #28 R. Faivre, #29 M. Senaya, #42 E. Owusu

Player Team Metric SStats

Ali Youssef Auxerre football.player.assists 0

Ali Youssef Auxerre Dribling popytki 2

Ali Youssef Auxerre Edinoborstva vsego 1

Ali Youssef Auxerre Edinoborstva vyigrano 3

Ali Youssef Auxerre Seyvy 0

Ali Youssef Auxerre football.player.minutes_played 90

Ali Youssef Auxerre Klyuchevye pasy 36

Ali Youssef Auxerre Reyting (staryy) 6.9

Ali Youssef Auxerre Otbory vsego 26

Anthony Lopes Auxerre football.player.assists 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Auxerre 49.3% 47.3% market and model agree

Draw 28.3% 27.4% draw risk

Nantes 22.4% 25.3%

xG - 1.38 : 0.93

Total 2.5 Over 37.5% - Under 62.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 47.3% / 27.4% / 25.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,460 / 1,389 Auxerre / Nantes

RD 77 / 77 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.14 market consensus · no value · model 25.3%

X 3.32 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 47.3%

Double chance

X2 1.83 market consensus · no value · model 52.7%

12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 72.6%

1X 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.40 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.95 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.00 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.27 market consensus · no value · model 37.5%

Under 2.5 1.64 market consensus · weak value +2.5% · model 62.5%

Both teams to score

No 1.76 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.98 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.96 51.0%	1.97 50.8%	2.03 49.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.95 51.3%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.35 29.9%	3.46 28.9%	3.40 29.4%	3.30 30.3%	3.30 30.3%
	4.10 24.4%	4.15 24.1%	4.27 23.4%	4.20 23.8%	4.15 24.1%	4.40 22.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.77 56.5%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.78 56.2%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.74 57.5%	1.70 58.8%
yes	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.98 50.5%	2.00 50.0%	1.98 50.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	2.06 48.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.78 56.2%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.08 92.6%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.22 82.0%
Over 1.5	1.42 70.4%	—	1.37 73.0%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.48 67.6%
Over 2.25	—	2.01 49.8%	—
Over 2.5	2.25 44.4%	—	—
Over 3.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
Over 4.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
Under 0.5	7.50 13.3%	—	—
Under 1.5	2.80 35.7%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	1.89 52.9%	—
Under 2.5	1.62 61.7%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.06 94.3%	—	—

Match center

Auxerre

Founded 1905

Nantes

Founded 1943

Match center

Auxerre

GM Gideon Mensah Injury

OE O. El Azzouzi Knee Injury

Nantes

TT Tylel Tati Red Card

Auxerre Founded: 1905

Nantes Founded: 1943

Match center

Auxerre

D W L D D

05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 1:1 Le Havre

21.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 3:0 Stade Brestois 29

13.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 0:1 Marseille

07.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 0:0 Strasbourg

01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 2:2 Lorient

1 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.8 Conceded

6 Points

Nantes

D L L L W

05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:0 Metz

22.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 2:3 Strasbourg

07.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:1 Angers

01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:1 Lille

22.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 2:0 Le Havre

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAuxerre - Nantes

Auxerre

2 matches total

Nantes

Auxerre: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Nantes: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Nantes 0:1 (30.08 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 10.05 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (10.05 19:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

30.08 17:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Auxerre

0:1

Nantes

10.05 19:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Auxerre

1:1

Nantes

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.