Ligue 1 France

05.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction

05.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Le Havre - Auxerre

France Futbol

Stadium Stade Océane

Capacity 25 178

Le Havre

1 : 1

Finished

Auxerre

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Auxerre — 36%

1 · Le Havre35.4%

X · draw28.4%

2 · Auxerre36.3%

Model estimate: win Le Havre 35.4%, draw 28.4%, win Auxerre 36.3%. Model favourite — Auxerre.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Le Havre - Auxerre 5 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Le Havre.

Line favourite market consensus: Le Havre. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.43 / X 3.08 / 2 3.12
1X2 market: Le Havre 38.9% / X 30.7% / Auxerre 30.3%
Glicko: Le Havre 35.4% / X 28.4% / Auxerre 36.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 46.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%

1 38.9%

X 30.7%

2 30.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 41.6%

Under 2.5 58.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: Х

Main outcome Х

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 29.6%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center

Start 05.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Stadium Stade Océane (Le Havre)

Capacity 25,178

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Auxerre 36%

💹 Market Le Havre 3894%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Le Havre - Auxerre

Le Havre: Победа 2.40 Le Havre: Ничья 3.00 Auxerre Победа: 3.25 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.30 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.62 Индивидуальный тотал голов Le Havre больше 1.5: 2.62 Индивидуальный тотал голов Le Havre меньше 1.5: 1.44 Индивидуальный тотал голов Auxerre боль…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 0

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

Metric Le Havre Auxerre SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 0.65 1.8 final

Заблокированные удары 2 5 final

Удары мимо 5 5 final

Удары в створ 3 2 final

Удары всего 10 12 final

Фолы совершено 16 21 final

Желтые карточки 2 2 final

Офсайды 3 3 final

Le Havre #5 K. Danois, #10 L. Sinayoko, #14 G. Mensah, #19 D. Namaso, #20 S. Diomandé, #22 F. Oppegård, #24 B. Okoh, #27 L. Sy, #28 R. Faivre, #40 T. De Percin, #42 E. Owusu

Auxerre #4 G. Lloris, #7 L. Négo, #14 R. Ndiaye, #15 Ayumu Seko, #17 S. Boufal, #18 Y. Zouaoui, #19 L. Gourna-Douath, #26 S. Ebonog, #45 I. Soumaré, #93 A. Sangante, #99 Mory Diaw

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Dioussé Le Havre Сейвы 0

B. Okoh Le Havre football.player.assists 0

B. Okoh Le Havre Дриблинг попытки 4

B. Okoh Le Havre Единоборства всего 2

B. Okoh Le Havre Единоборства выиграно 8

B. Okoh Le Havre Фолы совершено 1

B. Okoh Le Havre Сейвы 0

B. Okoh Le Havre football.player.minutes_played 90

B. Okoh Le Havre Ключевые пасы 27

B. Okoh Le Havre Рейтинг (старый) 6.9

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Le Havre 38.2% 35.4% market favourite

Draw 31.0% 28.4% draw risk

Auxerre 30.8% 36.3% Glicko-противоход

xG - 1.14 : 1.16

Total 2.5 Over 46.6% - Under 53.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 35.4% / 28.4% / 36.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,462 / 1,458 Le Havre / Auxerre

RD 77 / 78 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.12 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.3%

X 3.08 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.43 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.4%

Double chance

X2 1.55 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.6%

12 1.35 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 71.6%

1X 1.36 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.04 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.06 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.29 market consensus · weak value +6.6% · model 46.6%

Under 2.5 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 53.4%

Both teams to score

No 1.83 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
П1	2.35 42.6%	2.40 41.7%	2.51 39.8%	2.40 41.7%	2.40 41.7%	2.45 40.8%
Х	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.23 31.0%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	3.05 32.8%
П2	3.15 31.8%	3.15 31.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.15 31.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.80 55.6%	1.84 54.4%	1.82 55.0%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%
yes	1.90 52.6%	1.93 51.8%	1.90 52.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.57 63.7%	1.59 62.9%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.50 66.7%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.35 74.1%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.09 91.7%	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 0.75	—	—	1.04 96.2%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.07 93.5%
ТБ 1.25	—	—	1.22 82.0%
ТБ 1.5	1.42 70.4%	—	1.38 72.5%
ТБ 1.75	—	—	1.49 67.1%
ТБ 2.25	—	2.03 49.3%	—
ТБ 2.5	2.25 44.4%	—	—
ТБ 3.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	7.00 14.3%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	2.80 35.7%	—	—
ТМ 2.25	—	1.87 53.5%	—
ТМ 2.5	1.62 61.7%	—	—
ТМ 3.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.06 94.3%	—	—

Match center

Le Havre

Founded 1872

Auxerre

Founded 1905

Match center

Le Havre

AT A. Touré Knee Injury

LM L. Mpasi Inactive

Auxerre

DL D. Léon Red Card

JC J. Casimir Inactive

Le Havre Founded: 1872

Auxerre Founded: 1905

Match center

Le Havre

L D L L L

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Le Havre 2:3 Paris FC

15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Le Havre 0:0 Lion

08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Le Havre 0:2 Stade Brestois 29

28.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1

Le Havre 0:1 Paris Saint Germain

22.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Le Havre 0:2 Nantes

0 Wins

1 Draws

4 Losses

0.4 Scored

1.6 Conceded

1 Points

Auxerre

W L D D L

21.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 3:0 Stade Brestois 29

13.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 0:1 Marseille

07.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 0:0 Strasbourg

01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 2:2 Lorient

22.02 14:00 UTC Ligue 1

Auxerre 0:3 Rennes

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLe Havre - Auxerre

Le Havre

3 matches total

Auxerre

Le Havre: 3 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Auxerre: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Le Havre 3:1 (01.09 15:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 01.09 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

6 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 6

Match history

26.10 16:15 UTC

Ligue 1

Le Havre

1:0

Auxerre

04.05 15:15 UTC

Ligue 1

Le Havre

2:1

Auxerre

01.09 15:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Le Havre

3:1

Auxerre

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.