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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
26.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Le Havre - Metz

France Football
Stadium Stade Océane
Referee F. Letexier
Capacity 25 178
Le Havre
Le Havre
4 : 4
Finished
Metz
Metz
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Le Havre — 54%

1 · Le Havre53.6%
X · draw25.5%
2 · Metz21.0%

Model estimate: win Le Havre 53.6%, draw 25.5%, win Metz 21.0%. Model favourite — Le Havre.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Le Havre - Metz April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Le Havre.

Strongest: Le Havre - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.68 / X 3.79 / 2 4.95
  • 1X2 market: Le Havre 56.0% / X 24.9% / Metz 19.1%
  • Glicko: Le Havre 53.6% / X 25.5% / Metz 21.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 48.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 56.1%
X 24.9%
2 19.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 49.5%
Under 2.5 50.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 55.6%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 26.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Stadium Stade Océane (Le Havre)
Referee F. Letexier
Capacity 25,178

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Le Havre 54%
💹 Market Le Havre 5604%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Le Havre - Metz

Le Havre: Win 1.67 Le Havre: Draw 3.80 Metz Win: 5.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Le Havre bolshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Le Havre menshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Metz bolshe 0.5…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:4
Events 22
Statistics 24
Lineups 37
min Event Player Team
5' 5' Normal Goal | Mbwana Ally Samatta Pontus Almqvist Le Havre
9' 9' Normal Goal | Giorgi Kvilitaia | assist/sub out: Gauthier Hein I. Khanenko Metz
13' 13' Normal Goal | Yassine Kechta Le Havre
18' 18' Substitution 1 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin | assist/sub out: Nathan Mbala R. Savalnieks Metz
45+5' 45+5' Penalty | Gauthier Hein Aristotelis Thanos Metz
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Alpha Touré | assist/sub out: Benjamin Stambouli Metz
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Rassoul Ndiaye | assist/sub out: Lucas Gourna-Douath Le Havre
46' 46' Substitution 3 | Urie-Michel Mboula | assist/sub out: Jahyann Pandore Metz
Metric Le Havre Metz SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.99 1.58 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 2 final
Shots off target 2 5 final
Shots on target 5 5 final
Udary vsego 14 12 final
Fouls soversheno 12 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Offsides 3 1 final
Le Havre #4 G. Lloris, #7 L. Négo, #8 Y. Kechta, #13 F. Doucouré, #14 R. Ndiaye, #15 Ayumu Seko, #18 Y. Zouaoui, #25 M. Samatta, #26 S. Ebonog, #45 I. Soumaré, #99 Mory Diaw
Metz #4 U. Mboula, #5 J. Gbamin, #7 G. Tsitaishvili, #10 G. Hein, #11 G. Kvilitaia, #12 A. Touré, #15 T. Yegbe, #20 J. Deminguet, #38 Sadibou Sané, #61 P. Sy, #70 B. Sarr
Player Team Metric SStats
Ayumu Seko Le Havre football.player.assists 0
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Dribling popytki 3
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Edinoborstva vsego 1
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Seyvy 0
Ayumu Seko Le Havre football.player.minutes_played 90
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Tochnost pasov % 1
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Klyuchevye pasy 54
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Reyting (staryy) 6.2
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Bloki 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Le Havre 57.2% 53.6% market and model agree
Draw 24.2% 25.5% draw risk
Metz 18.5% 21.0%
xG - 1.56 : 0.87
Total 2.5 Over 48.0% - Under 52.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 53.6% / 25.5% / 21.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,463 / 1,348 Le Havre / Metz
RD 74 / 81 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.95 market consensus · no value · model 21.0%
X 3.79 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 53.6%
Double chance
X2 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 46.4%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 74.6%
1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 79.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.18 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.67 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.27 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.70 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · no value · model 48.0%
Under 2.5 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 52.0%
Both teams to score
No 1.89 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.74 57.5% 1.71 58.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9%
X 3.75 26.7% 4.11 24.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6%
4.40 22.7% 5.38 18.6% 4.80 20.8% 5.00 20.0% 5.20 19.2% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4%
yes 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.88 53.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.00 50.0% 2.28 43.9% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.10 47.6%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.19 84.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75 — 1.33 75.2%
Over 2.0 — 1.43 69.9%
Over 2.25 — 1.66 60.2%
Over 2.5 1.93 51.8% —
Over 3.5 3.35 29.9% —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% —
Under 1.5 3.50 28.6% —
Under 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% —
Match center
Le Havre
Founded 1872
Metz
Founded 1932
Match center
Le Havre
D D D L D
18.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:1 AngersAngers
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:1 NiceNice
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:1 AuxerreAuxerre
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 2:3 Paris FCParis FC
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 0:0 LionLion
0 Wins
4 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
4 Points
Metz
L L D D L
19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:3 Paris FCParis FC
10.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:3 MarseilleMarseille
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 NantesNantes
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 RennesRennes
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 3:4 ToulouseToulouse
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLe Havre - Metz

Le Havre
1 matches total
Metz
Le Havre: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Metz: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (28.09 15:15 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

28.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre
0:0
Metz
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.