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Ligue 1 France

33 round 08.05.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

08.05.2026 18:45 UTC 33 round

Finished

Ligue 1

Lens - Nantes

France Football

Stadium Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Referee M. Vernice

Capacity 41 233

Lens

1 : 0

Finished

Nantes

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Lens — 65%

1 · Lens ✓ Pick65.2%

market65%

X · draw20.5%

market20%

2 · Nantes14.3%

market15%

Model estimate: win Lens 65.2%, draw 20.5%, win Nantes 14.3%. Model favourite — Lens.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lens - Nantes May 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Strongest: Lens - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.45 / X 4.84 / 2 6.32
1X2 market: Lens 65.3% / X 19.6% / Nantes 15.1%
Glicko: Lens 65.2% / X 20.5% / Nantes 14.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 51.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 ✓ Pick 65.4%

X 19.6%

2 15.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%

Over 2.5 62.3%

Under 2.5 37.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 6/6

Confidence 69.0%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Bollar-Delelis (Lans, France), vmestimost: 41233

Referee Mate Vernis

Start 08.05.2026 18:45 UTC

Capacity 41,233

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lens 65%

💹 Market Lens 6533%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Lens - Nantes

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Lans - Nant, 8 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship France po futbolu (Liga 1) 2025-2026, 33 round. Lans - Nant, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 15

Statistics 22

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

15' 15' Yellow Card | A. Sima A. Sima Lens

36' 36' Yellow Card | A. Bulatovic A. Bulatovic Lens

46' 46' Substitution 1 | R. Fofana | assist/sub out: F. Sotoca R. Fofana Lens

59' 59' Substitution 2 | O. Edouard | assist/sub out: R. Aguilar O. Edouard Lens

65' 65' Substitution 3 | A. Haidara | assist/sub out: F. Sylla A. Haidara Lens

66' 66' Substitution 1 | U. Radakovic | assist/sub out: Ali Youssef U. Radakovic Nantes

72' 72' Goal cancelled | A. Sima A. Sima Lens

75' 75' Yellow Card | Ali Youssef Ali Youssef Nantes

Metric Lens Nantes SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.82 1.25 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 6 final

Shots off target 5 6 final

Shots on target 5 3 final

Udary vsego 14 15 final

Fouls soversheno 15 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final

Offsides 4 0 final

Lens #11 O. Edouard, #14 M. Udol, #20 M. Sarr, #22 W. Said, #40 Robin Risser, #6 S. Baidoo, #21 A. Haidara, #38 R. Fofana, #5 A. Bulatovic, #25 I. Ganiou, #19 A. Sima

Nantes #1 Anthony Lopes, #3 Nicolas Cozza, #10 Matthis Abline, #24 F. Guilbert, #28 Ibrahima Sissoko, #8 Johann Lepenant, #26 U. Radakovic, #37 Ignatius Kpene Ganago, #6 Chidozie Awaziem, #21 Mohamed Kaba, #22 Mathieu Acapandié

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bermont Lens football.player.assists 0

A. Bermont Lens football.player.minutes_played 11

A. Bulatovic Lens football.player.assists 1

A. Bulatovic Lens football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Haidara Lens football.player.assists 0

A. Haidara Lens football.player.minutes_played 65

A. Sima Lens football.player.assists 0

A. Sima Lens football.player.minutes_played 79

F. Sotoca Lens football.player.assists 0

F. Sotoca Lens football.player.minutes_played 45

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lens 66.7% 65.2% market and model agree

Draw 19.4% 20.5% draw risk

Nantes 13.9% 14.3%

xG - 2.00 : 0.81

Total 2.5 Over 51.5% - Under 48.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 65.2% / 20.5% / 14.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,636 / 1,414 Lens / Nantes

RD 76 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.24 market consensus · no value · model 14.3%

X 8.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 65.2%

Double chance

X2 2.72 market consensus · no value · model 34.8%

12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 79.5%

1X 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 85.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.79 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.16 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.40 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.43 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.51 market consensus · no value · model 51.5%

Under 2.5 2.49 market consensus · weak value +20.8% · model 48.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.12 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.43 69.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%
X	4.80 20.8%	4.98 20.1%	4.60 21.7%	5.00 20.0%	5.10 19.6%	4.75 21.1%
	6.00 16.7%	6.86 14.6%	6.00 16.7%	6.00 16.7%	6.60 15.2%	6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.07 48.3%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.09 47.9%	2.12 47.2%
yes	1.65 60.6%	1.66 60.2%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.66 60.2%	1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.70 37.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.80 35.7%	2.70 37.0%
home_away	1.14 87.7%	1.21 82.6%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.14 87.7%
home_draw	1.11 90.1%	1.12 89.3%	1.13 88.5%	1.11 90.1%	1.14 87.7%	1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5	1.17 85.5%	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.75	—	1.15 87.0%
Over 2.0	—	1.18 84.8%
Over 2.25	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 2.5	1.50 66.7%	—
Over 3.5	2.25 44.4%	—
Over 4.5	3.90 25.6%	—
Over 5.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 2.5	2.55 39.2%	—
Under 3.5	1.62 61.7%	—
Under 4.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Under 5.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

Lens

Founded 1906

Nantes

Founded 1943

Match center

Lens

FT F. Thauvin Injury

RG R. Gurtner Muscle Injury

Nantes

DM D. Machado Injury

FC F. Centonze Injury

Rezhis Gyurtner Zhonatan Gradi Floryan Toven Allan Sent-Maksimen Travmirovannye Lubade Silla Tilel Tati Deyver Machado Amadi Kamara Faben Sentons Kelven Amen-Adu Bakhmed Deuff Aleksis Mirbash Diskvalifitsirovannye Mamadu Sangare Adrien Tomasson Saud Abdulkhamid CHAMP

Lens Founded: 1906

Nantes Founded: 1943

Match center

Lens

D D W L W

02.05 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 1:1 Nice

24.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 3:3 Stade Brestois 29

17.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 3:2 Toulouse

04.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 0:3 Lille

20.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 5:1 Angers

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

2.4 Scored

2.0 Conceded

8 Points

Nantes

W L L D D

02.05 13:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 3:0 Marseille

26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 1:2 Rennes

22.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:3 Paris Saint Germain

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 1:1 Stade Brestois 29

11.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:0 Auxerre

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLens - Nantes

Lens

1 matches total

Nantes

Lens: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Nantes: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Lens 2:1 (06.12 16:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 06.12 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

06.12 16:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Lens

2:1

Nantes

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Lens

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Nantes

31 Games 32

20 Wins 5

4 Draws 8

7 Losses 19

61 Scored 29

33 Conceded 51

64 Points 23

98.03 Attacks 79.81

53.94 Dangerous attacks 35

0 Big chances 0

16.03 Shots on goal 10.34

5.45 Shots on target 3.13

leniya 0.06 Goly Mezian Soares Andriya Bulatovich 1:0 79' Nakazaniya Abdalla Sima 15' Andriya Bulatovich 36' Ali Yussif 76' VAR Abdalla Sima 71'

Lans Nant 31 Games 32 20 Wins 5 4 Draws 8 7 Losses 19 61 Scored 29 33 Conceded 51 64 Points 23 98.03 Attacks 79.81 53.94 Dangerous attacks 35 0 Big chances 0 16.03 Shots on goal 10.34 5.45 Udary v stvor 3.13 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 6.13 Uglovye 3.72 1.94 Offsaydy 1.31 12.68 Foly 12.53 51.19 % vladeniya myachom 42.19 1.87 Warnings 2.03 0.16 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Mezian Soares Andriya Bulatovich 1:0 79' Nakazaniya Abdalla Sima 15' Andriya Bulatovich 36' Ali Yussif 76' VAR Abdalla Sima 71'