PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
17.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction Prediction
17.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lens - Toulouse

France Football
Stadium Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Capacity 41 233
Lens
Lens
3 : 2
Finished
Toulouse
Toulouse
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Lens — 62%

1 · Lens ✓ Pick62.4%
market66%
X · draw22.1%
market21%
2 · Toulouse15.5%
market14%

Model estimate: win Lens 62.4%, draw 22.1%, win Toulouse 15.5%. Model favourite — Lens.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lens - Toulouse April 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Strongest: Lens - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.45 / X 4.65 / 2 6.96
  • 1X2 market: Lens 65.7% / X 20.5% / Toulouse 13.8%
  • Glicko: Lens 62.4% / X 22.1% / Toulouse 15.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 ✓ Pick 65.8%
X 20.5%
2 13.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 57.8%
Under 2.5 42.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 63.9%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 17.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)
Capacity 41,233

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lens 62%
💹 Market Lens 6573%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lens - Toulouse

Lens: Win 1.42 Lens: Draw 4.75 Toulouse Win: 7.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Lens bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Lens menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Toulouse bolshe 0.5: 1.62 I…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:2
Events 19
Statistics 26
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
6' 6' Normal Goal | C. Casseres Toulouse
13' 13' Normal Goal | S. Koumbassa Toulouse
16' 16' Card upgrade | Y. Gboho Toulouse
17' 17' Red Card | Y. Gboho Toulouse
45' 45' Yellow Card | A. Masuaku Kamya Praveen Nair Lens
46' 46' Substitution 1 | S. Hidalgo | assist/sub out: P. Demba Toulouse
55' 55' Substitution 3 | W. Said | assist/sub out: A. Saint-Maximin R. López Lens
55' 55' Substitution 4 | R. Fofana | assist/sub out: O. Edouard Lens
Metric Lens Toulouse SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.76 0.41 final
Zablokirovannye udary 10 2 final
Shots off target 18 1 final
Shots on target 13 2 final
Udary vsego 41 5 final
Fouls soversheno 9 15 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final
Lens #1 Guillaume Restes, #2 Rasmus Nicolaisen, #4 C. Cresswell, #10 Yann Gboho, #11 Santiago Hidalgo, #12 Waren Kamanzi, #15 A. Donnum, #20 Emersonn, #23 Cristian Cásseres Jr., #35 Seny Koumbassa, #45 Alexis Vossah
Toulouse #7 F. Sotoca, #8 M. Sangare, #14 M. Udol, #20 M. Sarr, #22 W. Said, #23 Saud Abdulhamid, #25 I. Ganiou, #27 A. Masuaku, #28 A. Thomasson, #38 R. Fofana, #40 Robin Risser
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Donnum Lens football.player.assists 0
A. Donnum Lens Dribling popytki 4
A. Donnum Lens Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Donnum Lens Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Donnum Lens Edinoborstva vyigrano 9
A. Donnum Lens Fouls soversheno 2
A. Donnum Lens Seyvy 0
A. Donnum Lens football.player.minutes_played 64
A. Donnum Lens Klyuchevye pasy 15
A. Donnum Lens Reyting (staryy) 6.7
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lens 65.0% 62.4% market and model agree
Draw 21.2% 22.1% draw risk
Toulouse 13.8% 15.5%
xG - 1.84 : 0.79
Total 2.5 Over 51.5% - Under 48.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 62.4% / 22.1% / 15.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,643 / 1,511 Lens / Toulouse
RD 78 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.96 market consensus · no value · model 15.5%
X 4.65 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.45 market consensus · no value · model 62.4%
Double chance
X2 2.74 market consensus · no value · model 37.6%
12 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 77.9%
1X 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 84.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.77 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.90 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.43 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 51.5%
Under 2.5 2.26 market consensus · weak value +9.7% · model 48.5%
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.79 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.49 67.1% 1.63 61.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.47 68.0%
X 4.30 23.3% 4.20 23.8% 4.93 20.3% 4.40 22.7% 4.75 21.1% 4.85 20.6%
6.00 16.7% 5.00 20.0% 7.70 13.0% 6.50 15.4% 7.50 13.3% 7.30 13.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.92 52.1% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.50 40.0% 2.92 34.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.62 38.2% 2.82 35.5% 2.70 37.0%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.17 85.5%
Over 1.75 — — 1.21 82.6%
Over 2.0 — — 1.26 79.4%
Over 2.5 1.67 59.9% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.98 50.5% —
Over 3.5 2.70 37.0% — —
Over 4.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Under 2.5 2.15 46.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.92 52.1% —
Under 3.5 1.45 69.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.17 85.5% — —
Match center
Lens
Founded 1906
Toulouse
Founded 1937
Match center
Lens
L W L W D
04.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:3 LilleLille
20.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 5:1 AngersAngers
14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:2 LorientLorient
08.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:0 MetzMetz
27.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Toulouse
L W W L L
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:4 LilleLille
21.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:0 LorientLorient
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 4:3 MetzMetz
07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
28.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 RennesRennes
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLens - Toulouse

Lens
2 matches total
Toulouse
Lens: 1 (50%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Toulouse: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Lens 3:0 (02.01 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 02.01 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (10.05 19:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 4

Match history

02.01 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens
3:0
Toulouse
10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens
1:1
Toulouse
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.