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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
03.05.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction
03.05.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lille - Le Havre

France Futbol
Stadium Пьер Моруа
Referee G. Paradis
Lille
Lille
1 : 1
Finished
Le Havre
Le Havre
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Lille — 62%

1 · Lille ✓ Прогноз61.6%
market68%
X · draw22.8%
market21%
2 · Le Havre15.6%
market12%

Model estimate: win Lille 61.6%, draw 22.8%, win Le Havre 15.6%. Model favourite — Lille.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lille - Le Havre 3 мая 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Strongest: Lille - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.40 / X 4.58 / 2 8.21
  • 1X2 market: Lille 67.7% / X 20.7% / Le Havre 11.6%
  • Glicko: Lille 61.6% / X 22.8% / Le Havre 15.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 42.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 ✓ Прогноз 67.7%
X 20.7%
2 11.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 50.7%
Under 2.5 49.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Сильный исход AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 6/6
Confidence 72.1%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 1:0

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

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Match center
Start 03.05.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Пьер Моруа (Лилль)
Referee G. Paradis

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lille 62%
💹 Market Lille 6767%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lille - Le Havre

Lille: Победа 1.40 Lille: Ничья 4.75 Le Havre Победа: 8.00 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.91 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.91 Индивидуальный тотал голов Lille больше 1.5: 1.57 Индивидуальный тотал голов Lille меньше 1.5: 2.25 Индивидуальный тотал голов Le Havre больше 0.5: 1.…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
5' 5' Yellow Card | L. Gourna-Douath L. Gourna-Douath Le Havre
29' 29' Normal Goal | H. Haraldsson | assist/sub out: A. Bouaddi Hakon Arnar Haraldsson Lille
33' 33' Normal Goal | I. Soumare I. Soumaré Le Havre
35' 35' Yellow Card | A. Seko Ayumu Seko Le Havre
43' 43' Yellow Card | T. Meunier Thomas Meunier Lille
59' 59' Yellow Card | A. Mandi Aïssa Mandi Lille
64' 64' Substitution 2 | F. Doucoure | assist/sub out: T. Pembele F. Doucouré Le Havre
65' 65' Substitution 3 | S. Boufal | assist/sub out: Y. Kechta S. Boufal Le Havre
Metric Lille Le Havre SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.55 0.14 final
Заблокированные удары 6 0 final
Удары мимо 6 1 final
Удары в створ 10 2 final
Удары всего 22 2 final
Фолы совершено 9 15 final
Желтые карточки 2 3 final
Офсайды 1 3 final
Lille #1 B. Ozer, #7 Matías Fernández-Pardo, #15 R. Perraud, #21 B. Andre, #27 F. Correia, #10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, #23 Aïssa Mandi, #32 Ayyoub Bouaddi, #3 Nathan Ngoy, #17 Ngal'ayel Mukau, #12 Thomas Meunier
Le Havre #18 Y. Zouaoui, #19 L. Gourna-Douath, #25 M. Samatta, #45 I. Soumaré, #99 Mory Diaw, #4 G. Lloris, #17 S. Boufal, #26 S. Ebonog, #13 F. Doucouré, #15 Ayumu Seko, #7 L. Négo
Player Team Metric SStats
Ayumu Seko Le Havre football.player.assists 0
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Дриблинг попытки 1
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Единоборства всего 3
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Единоборства выиграно 6
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Сейвы 0
Ayumu Seko Le Havre football.player.minutes_played 90
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Ключевые пасы 29
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Рейтинг (старый) 6
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Отборы всего 20
Ayumu Seko Le Havre Жёлтые карточки 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lille 67.9% 61.6% market and model agree
Draw 20.5% 22.8% draw risk
Le Havre 11.6% 15.6%
xG - 1.77 : 0.76
Total 2.5 Over 42.3% - Under 57.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 61.6% / 22.8% / 15.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,620 / 1,457 Lille / Le Havre
RD 73 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.21 market consensus · no value · model 15.6%
X 4.58 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 61.6%
Double chance
X2 2.89 market consensus · no value · model 38.4%
12 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 77.2%
1X 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 84.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.96 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.25 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.39 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 42.3%
Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · value +11.3% · model 57.7%
Both teams to score
No 1.70 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.07 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
П1 1.39 71.9% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.36 73.5%
Х 4.35 23.0% 4.83 20.7% 4.33 23.1% 4.75 21.1% 4.65 21.5% 4.50 22.2%
П2 8.25 12.1% 8.60 11.6% 7.50 13.3% 8.00 12.5% 8.75 11.4% 8.50 11.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2% 1.71 58.5%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.09 47.9% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.09 47.9% 2.04 49.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.88 34.7% 3.00 33.3% 2.88 34.7% 2.75 36.4% 2.95 33.9% 2.88 34.7%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.09 91.7% 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.01 99.0%
ТБ 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.25 — 1.14 87.7%
ТБ 1.5 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0%
ТБ 1.75 — 1.32 75.8%
ТБ 2.0 — 1.40 71.4%
ТБ 2.25 — 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
ТБ 3.5 3.10 32.3% —
ТБ 4.5 5.75 17.4% —
ТМ 0.5 9.50 10.5% —
ТМ 1.5 3.60 27.8% —
ТМ 2.5 1.93 51.8% —
ТМ 3.5 1.35 74.1% —
ТМ 4.5 1.12 89.3% —
Match center
Lille
Founded 1944
Le Havre
Founded 1872
Match center
Lille
NB N. Bentaleb Injury
MC M. Caillard Elbow Injury
Le Havre
AT A. Toure Knee Injury
RN R. Ndiaye Thigh Injury
Lille Founded: 1944
Le Havre Founded: 1872
Match center
Lille
W D W W W
26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:0 Paris FCParis FC
18.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 0:0 NiceNice
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 4:0 ToulouseToulouse
04.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 3:0 LensLens
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 MarseilleMarseille
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.2 Conceded
13 Points
Le Havre
D D D D L
26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 4:4 MetzMetz
18.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:1 AngersAngers
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:1 NiceNice
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:1 AuxerreAuxerre
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 2:3 Paris FCParis FC
0 Wins
4 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLille - Le Havre

Lille
2 matches total
Le Havre
Lille: 2 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Le Havre: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Lille 3:0 (28.09 17:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 28.09 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 4

Match history

30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille
1:0
Le Havre
28.09 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille
3:0
Le Havre
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.