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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
04.04.2026 19:05 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 19:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lille - Lens

France Football
Stadium Per Morua
Lille
Lille
3 : 0
Finished
Lens
Lens
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lens — 42%

1 · Lille31.2%
X · draw26.5%
2 · Lens42.3%

Model estimate: win Lille 31.2%, draw 26.5%, win Lens 42.3%. Model favourite — Lens.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lille - Lens April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Strongest: Lens - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.92 / X 3.34 / 2 2.43
  • 1X2 market: Lille 32.5% / X 28.5% / Lens 39.0%
  • Glicko: Lille 31.2% / X 26.5% / Lens 42.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 48.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 32.5%
X 28.4%
2 39.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 51.0%
Under 2.5 49.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 2/4
Confidence 41.4%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 19:05 UTC
Stadium Per Morua (Lill)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lens 42%
💹 Market Lens 3900%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lille - Lens

Lille: Win 2.88 Lille: Draw 3.40 Lens Win: 2.45 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Lille bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Lille menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Lens bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Indiv…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
44' 44' Normal Goal | H. Haraldsson | assist/sub out: M. Fernandez-Pardo Lille
45+5' 45+5' Yellow Card | A. Thomasson L. Rosenboom Lens
45+5' 45+5' Yellow Card | N. Ngoy Lille
49' 49' Normal Goal Lille
55' 55' Substitution 1 | W. Said | assist/sub out: A. Saint-Maximin R. López Lens
55' 55' Substitution 2 | N. Celik | assist/sub out: A. Haidara Lens
58' 58' Penalty | M. Fernandez-Pardo Lille
67' 67' Substitution 5 | A. Thomasson | assist/sub out: F. Sotoca L. Rosenboom Lens
Metric Lille Lens SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.68 0.59 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 0 final
Shots off target 4 4 final
Shots on target 7 1 final
Udary vsego 13 5 final
Fouls soversheno 9 13 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Lille #1 B. Ozer, #3 Nathan Ngoy, #6 Nabil Bentaleb, #7 Matías Fernández-Pardo, #10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, #12 Thomas Meunier, #15 R. Perraud, #17 Ngal'ayel Mukau, #23 Aïssa Mandi, #27 F. Correia, #32 Ayyoub Bouaddi
Lens #8 M. Sangare, #10 F. Thauvin, #11 O. Edouard, #14 M. Udol, #20 M. Sarr, #22 W. Said, #23 Saud Abdulhamid, #25 I. Ganiou, #28 A. Thomasson, #40 Robin Risser
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Bermont Lens Seyvy 0
A. Bulatovic Lens football.player.assists 0
A. Bulatovic Lens Seyvy 0
A. Bulatovic Lens football.player.minutes_played 11
A. Bulatovic Lens Klyuchevye pasy 3
A. Bulatovic Lens Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Bulatovic Lens Otbory vsego 1
A. Haidara Lens football.player.assists 0
A. Haidara Lens Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Haidara Lens Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lille 32.4% 31.2%
Draw 28.5% 26.5% draw risk
Lens 39.1% 42.3% market and model agree
xG - 1.16 : 1.39
Total 2.5 Over 48.2% - Under 51.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 31.2% / 26.5% / 42.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,591 / 1,661 Lille / Lens
RD 76 / 79 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.43 market consensus · no value · model 42.3%
X 3.34 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.92 market consensus · no value · model 31.2%
Double chance
X2 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 68.8%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 73.5%
1X 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 57.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.42 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.16 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.38 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.81 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 48.2%
Under 2.5 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 51.8%
Both teams to score
No 2.15 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.64 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.74 36.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.08 32.5% 2.80 35.7% 2.88 34.7% 2.95 33.9%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.35 29.9% 3.42 29.2% 3.20 31.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9%
2.46 40.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.51 39.8% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.22 45.1% 2.17 46.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.14 46.7%
yes 1.65 60.6% 1.64 61.0% 1.63 61.4% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.42 70.4% 1.43 69.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.53 65.4% 1.59 62.9% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% —
Over 2.75 — 2.04 49.0% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Over 4.5 6.00 16.7% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.55 28.2% — —
Under 2.5 1.93 51.8% 1.99 50.3% —
Under 2.75 — 1.86 53.8% —
Under 3.5 1.35 74.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
Lille
Founded 1944
Lens
Founded 1906
Match center
Lille
BÖ B. Özer Head Injury
BA B. André Hip Injury
Lens
RG R. Gurtner Muscle Injury
RA R. Aguilar Calf Injury
Lille Founded: 1944
Lens Founded: 1906
Match center
Lille
W W D W W
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 MarseilleMarseille
15.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 RennesRennes
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:1 LorientLorient
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:0 NantesNantes
22.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:0 AngersAngers
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
13 Points
Lens
W L W D L
20.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 5:1 AngersAngers
14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:2 LorientLorient
08.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:0 MetzMetz
27.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
21.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:3 MonacoMonaco
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLille - Lens

Lille
2 matches total
Lens
Lille: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lens: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Lens 0:3 (20.09 19:05 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 20.09 19:05 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 2

Match history

20.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille
0:3
Lens
26.10 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille
2:0
Lens
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.