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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
18.04.2026 19:05 UTC Match prediction
18.04.2026 19:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lille - Nice

France Football
Stadium Per Morua
Lille
Lille
0 : 0
Finished
Nice
Nice
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Lille — 61%

1 · Lille ✓ Pick60.8%
market62%
X · draw22.7%
market22%
2 · Nice16.5%
market16%

Model estimate: win Lille 60.8%, draw 22.7%, win Nice 16.5%. Model favourite — Lille.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lille - Nice April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Strongest: Lille - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / X 4.31 / 2 6.05
  • 1X2 market: Lille 62.2% / X 22.1% / Nice 15.7%
  • Glicko: Lille 60.8% / X 22.7% / Nice 16.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 43.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 ✓ Pick 62.2%
X 22.1%
2 15.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 54.9%
Under 2.5 45.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 62.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 18.04.2026 19:05 UTC
Stadium Per Morua (Lill)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lille 61%
💹 Market Lille 6220%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lille - Nice

Lille: Win 1.50 Lille: Draw 4.33 Nice Win: 6.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Lille bolshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Lille menshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Nice bolshe 0.5: 1.67 Indiv…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Goal cancelled | E. Wahi Nice
21' 21' Yellow Card | N. Mukau Lille
30' 30' Yellow Card | C. Mbemba J. Lopez Lille
56' 56' Substitution 1 | F. Correia | assist/sub out: E. Mbappe Lille
56' 56' Substitution 2 | N. Mukau | assist/sub out: O. Giroud Lille
71' 71' Penalty cancelled | R. Perraud Arina Malygina Lille
78' 78' Substitution 8 | A. Bouaddi | assist/sub out: O. Sahraoui Lille
83' 83' Substitution 9 | J. Clauss | assist/sub out: I. Jansson Nice
Metric Lille Nice SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.54 0.19 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 2 1 final
Udary vsego 9 5 final
Fouls soversheno 9 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Offsides 1 3 final
Lille #1 B. Ozer, #7 Matías Fernández-Pardo, #10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, #12 Thomas Meunier, #15 R. Perraud, #17 Ngal'ayel Mukau, #18 Chancel Mbemba, #21 B. Andre, #23 Aïssa Mandi, #27 F. Correia, #32 Ayyoub Bouaddi
Nice #10 Sofiane Diop, #11 E. Wahi, #22 T. Ndombele, #25 Mohamed Ali Cho, #26 Melvin Bard, #28 Abdulay Bah, #33 Antoine Mendy, #37 Kojo Peprah Oppong, #80 Yehvann Diouf, #92 Jonathan Clauss, #99 Salis Abdul Samed
Player Team Metric SStats
Abdulay Bah Nice football.player.assists 0
Abdulay Bah Nice Dribling popytki 3
Abdulay Bah Nice Dribling uspeshno 2
Abdulay Bah Nice Edinoborstva vsego 1
Abdulay Bah Nice Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
Abdulay Bah Nice Fouls na igroke 1
Abdulay Bah Nice Seyvy 0
Abdulay Bah Nice football.player.minutes_played 90
Abdulay Bah Nice Klyuchevye pasy 31
Abdulay Bah Nice Reyting (staryy) 7.2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lille 63.7% 60.8% market and model agree
Draw 21.9% 22.7% draw risk
Nice 14.4% 16.5%
xG - 1.80 : 0.81
Total 2.5 Over 43.3% - Under 56.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.8% / 22.7% / 16.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,621 / 1,450 Lille / Nice
RD 74 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.05 market consensus · no value · model 16.5%
X 4.31 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 60.8%
Double chance
X2 2.49 market consensus · no value · model 39.2%
12 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 77.3%
1X 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 83.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.52 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.96 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.90 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 43.3%
Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · value +20.2% · model 56.7%
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.50 66.7% 1.58 63.3% 1.56 64.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.57 63.7%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.15 24.1% 4.57 21.9% 4.00 25.0% 4.33 23.1% 4.60 21.7%
6.25 16.0% 5.70 17.5% 6.45 15.5% 5.50 18.2% 6.25 16.0% 6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.78 56.2% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.50 40.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.45 40.8% 2.38 42.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.50 40.0%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.11 90.1% 1.15 87.0% 1.13 88.5% 1.12 89.3% 1.16 86.2% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.24 80.7%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 3.5 2.95 33.9% — —
Over 4.5 5.50 18.2% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.80 26.3% — —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.14 87.7% — —
Match center
Lille
Founded 1944
Nice
Founded 1904
Match center
Lille
W W W W D
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 4:0 ToulouseToulouse
04.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 3:0 LensLens
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 MarseilleMarseille
15.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 RennesRennes
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:1 LorientLorient
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
13 Points
Nice
D L L W L
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:1 Le HavreLe Havre
04.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
21.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:4 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
14.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:0 AngersAngers
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:4 RennesRennes
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.4 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLille - Nice

Lille
1 matches total
Nice
Lille: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Nice: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Nice 0:2 (29.10 18:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 29.10 18:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille
0:2
Nice
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.