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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
23.11.2025 19:45 UTC Match prediction
23.11.2025 19:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lille - Paris FC

France Football
Lille
Lille
4 : 2
Finished
Paris FC
Paris FC

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lille - Paris FC November 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Line favourite market consensus: Lille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.70 / X 3.92 / 2 4.80
  • 1X2 market: Lille 55.9% / X 24.3% / Paris FC 19.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 55.9%
X 24.3%
2 19.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 54.7%
Under 2.5 45.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.11.2025 19:45 UTC
Match center

Lille - Paris FC

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.81 market consensus · line only
X 3.93 market consensus · line only
1 1.71 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.17 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 1.19 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.18 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.45 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.06 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.73 57.8%
X 3.99 25.1%
4.94 20.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.72 58.1% 1.71 58.5% 1.74 57.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2%
X 3.80 26.3% 4.10 24.4% 4.12 24.3% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6% 3.95 25.3%
4.65 21.5% 4.55 22.0% 5.08 19.7% 4.75 21.1% 4.75 21.1% 4.75 21.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.10 47.6% 2.02 49.5% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.04 49.0% 2.11 47.4%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.77 56.5% 1.69 59.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.69 59.2% 1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.05 48.8% 2.22 45.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.24 44.6%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.21 82.6%
Match center
Lille
L W L W W
09.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 0:2 StrasbourgStrasbourg
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:0 AngersAngers
29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 0:2 NiceNice
26.10 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 6:1 MetzMetz
19.10 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:0 NantesNantes
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Paris FC
L W D L L
07.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:1 RennesRennes
01.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:0 MonacoMonaco
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 3:3 LionLion
24.10 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:2 NantesNantes
19.10 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:2 LensLens
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLille - Paris FC

Lille
0 matches total
Paris FC
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history