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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
07.12.2025 19:45 UTC Match prediction
07.12.2025 19:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lorient - Lyon

France Football
Lorient
Lorient
1 : 0
Finished
Lyon
Lyon

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lorient - Lyon December 7, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Line favourite market consensus: Lyon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.70 / X 3.39 / 2 2.05
  • 1X2 market: Lorient 25.7% / X 28.0% / Lyon 46.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 25.7%
X 28.0%
2 46.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 46.4%
Under 2.5 53.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 07.12.2025 19:45 UTC
Match center

Lorient - Lyon

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.05 market consensus · line only
X 3.40 market consensus · line only
1 3.71 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.28 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.78 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.00 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.92 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.81 26.3%
X 3.51 28.5%
2.08 48.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.75 26.7% 3.75 26.7% 3.81 26.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.75 26.7% 3.75 26.7%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.35 29.9% 3.54 28.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9%
2.04 49.0% 2.06 48.5% 2.12 47.2% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.88 53.2% 1.99 50.3%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.25 80.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.79 55.9%
Match center
Lorient
W D D L D
30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 3:1 NiceNice
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 NantesNantes
09.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 ToulouseToulouse
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:3 LensLens
29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Lyon
W D L D D
30.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 3:0 NantesNantes
23.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 AuxerreAuxerre
09.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
02.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 3:3 Paris FCParis FC
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLorient - Lyon

Lorient
0 matches total
Lyon
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history