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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
18.04.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction
18.04.2026 15:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lorient - Marseille

France Football
Stadium Stade du Moustoir
Lorient
Lorient
2 : 0
Finished
Marseille
Marseille
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Marseille — 59%

1 · Lorient18.0%
market21%
X · draw22.7%
market23%
2 · Marseille ✓ Pick59.3%
market57%

Model estimate: win Lorient 18.0%, draw 22.7%, win Marseille 59.3%. Model favourite — Marseille.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lorient - Marseille April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Strongest: Marseille - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.61 / X 4.18 / 2 1.68
  • 1X2 market: Lorient 20.7% / X 22.8% / Marseille 56.5%
  • Glicko: Lorient 18.0% / X 22.7% / Marseille 59.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 20.6%
X 22.8%
2 ✓ Pick 56.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 61.0%
Under 2.5 39.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 56.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 18.04.2026 15:00 UTC
Stadium Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Marseille 59%
💹 Market Marseille 5654%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lorient - Marseille

Lorient: Win 4.50 Lorient: Draw 4.33 Marseille Win: 1.65 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Lorient bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Lorient menshe 1.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Marseille bol…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
28' 28' Normal Goal | Panos Katseris Lorient
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Igor Paixão | assist/sub out: Timothy Weah Cristiano Ronaldo Marseille
57' 57' Yellow Card | Benjamin Pavard D. Zakaria Marseille
58' 58' Normal Goal | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | assist/sub out: Pablo Pagis Lorient
59' 59' Substitution 2 | Amine Gouiri | assist/sub out: Ethan Nwaneri Marseille
59' 59' Substitution 3 | Himad Abdelli | assist/sub out: Bilal Nadir Ana Carmen Zamburek Marseille
69' 69' Substitution 1 | Jean-Victor Makengo | assist/sub out: Laurent Abergel P. Ekwah Lorient
74' 74' Yellow Card | Bilal Nadir Marseille
Metric Lorient Marseille SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.33 1.65 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 1 final
Shots off target 6 13 final
Shots on target 4 2 final
Udary vsego 11 16 final
Fouls soversheno 6 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 3 final
Offsides 2 0 final
Lorient #1 Gerónimo Rulli, #5 L. Balerdi, #8 H. Abdelli, #9 Amine Gouiri, #10 M. Greenwood, #14 I. Paixao, #17 P. Aubameyang, #20 H. J. Traore, #23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, #28 B. Pavard, #33 Emerson
Marseille #5 B. Meité, #8 N. Cadiou, #10 P. Pagis, #12 Ahmadou Bamba Dieng, #17 J. Makengo, #25 A. Faye, #32 N. Adjei, #38 Y. Mvogo, #44 D. Yongwa, #62 A. Avom, #77 P. Katseris
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Avom Marseille football.player.assists 0
A. Avom Marseille Dribling popytki 3
A. Avom Marseille Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Avom Marseille Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
A. Avom Marseille Seyvy 0
A. Avom Marseille football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Avom Marseille Klyuchevye pasy 50
A. Avom Marseille Reyting (staryy) 7.2
A. Avom Marseille Bloki 3
A. Avom Marseille Otbory vsego 42
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lorient 21.4% 18.0%
Draw 24.0% 22.7% draw risk
Marseille 54.6% 59.3% market and model agree
xG - 0.89 : 1.82
Total 2.5 Over 37.0% - Under 63.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 18.0% / 22.7% / 59.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,517 / 1,609 Lorient / Marseille
RD 74 / 77 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 59.3%
X 4.18 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.61 market consensus · no value · model 18.0%
Double chance
X2 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 82.0%
12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 77.4%
1X 2.18 market consensus · no value · model 40.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.10 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 37.0%
Under 2.5 2.41 market consensus · weak value +51.8% · model 63.0%
Both teams to score
No 2.29 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.40 22.7% 3.70 27.0% 4.98 20.1% 4.50 22.2% 4.50 22.2% 4.55 22.0%
X 3.85 26.0% 3.85 26.0% 4.37 22.9% 4.00 25.0% 4.33 23.1% 4.55 22.0%
1.72 58.1% 1.93 51.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.72 58.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.17 46.1% 2.32 43.1% 2.38 42.0% 2.25 44.4% 2.32 43.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.38 42.0% 2.29 43.7%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.14 87.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 2.05 48.8% 2.27 44.1% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.75 — — 1.16 86.2%
Over 2.5 1.67 59.9% — —
Over 2.75 — 2.00 50.0% —
Over 3.5 2.70 37.0% — —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Under 2.5 2.15 46.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.90 52.6% —
Under 3.5 1.45 69.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Match center
Lorient
Founded 1926
Marseille
Founded 1899
Match center
Lorient
L D L W D
12.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:2 LionLion
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
21.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:1 ToulouseToulouse
14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:1 LensLens
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 LilleLille
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points
Marseille
W L L W W
10.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:1 MetzMetz
05.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:2 MonacoMonaco
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:2 LilleLille
13.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 AuxerreAuxerre
07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 ToulouseToulouse
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLorient - Marseille

Lorient
1 matches total
Marseille
Lorient: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Marseille: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Marseille 0:4 (12.09 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 12.09 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 0

Match history

12.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient
0:4
Marseille
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.