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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
04.01.2026 16:15 UTC Match prediction
04.01.2026 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lorient - Metz

France Football
Lorient
Lorient
1 : 1
Finished
Metz
Metz

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lorient - Metz January 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lorient.

Line favourite market consensus: Lorient. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.83 / X 3.62 / 2 4.34
  • 1X2 market: Lorient 51.9% / X 26.2% / Metz 21.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 51.9%
X 26.2%
2 21.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 50.4%
Under 2.5 49.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.01.2026 16:15 UTC
Match center

Lorient - Metz

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.36 market consensus · line only
X 3.63 market consensus · line only
1 1.83 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.99 market consensus · line only
12 1.28 market consensus · line only
1X 1.22 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.55 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.24 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.84 54.4%
X 3.78 26.5%
4.52 22.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.88 53.2% 1.82 55.0% 1.88 53.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.78 26.5% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8%
3.95 25.3% 4.30 23.3% 4.57 21.9% 4.20 23.8% 4.33 23.1% 4.35 23.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0% 1.97 50.8% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.08 48.1%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.76 56.8% 1.76 56.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 2.03 49.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.24 80.7%
Match center
Lorient
D W W D D
14.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:0 StrasbourgStrasbourg
07.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:0 LionLion
30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 3:1 NiceNice
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 NantesNantes
09.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 ToulouseToulouse
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
Metz
L L L L W
13.12 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
07.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:3 AuxerreAuxerre
28.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 RennesRennes
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:3 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
09.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:1 NiceNice
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.2 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLorient - Metz

Lorient
0 matches total
Metz
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history