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Ligue 1 France

05.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction

05.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Lorient - Paris FC

France Football

Stadium Stade du Moustoir

Lorient

1 : 1

Finished

Paris FC

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lorient — 38%

1 · Lorient38.3%

X · draw27.3%

2 · Paris FC34.4%

Model estimate: win Lorient 38.3%, draw 27.3%, win Paris FC 34.4%. Model favourite — Lorient.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lorient - Paris FC April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lorient.

Strongest: Lorient - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.39 / X 3.22 / 2 3.09
1X2 market: Lorient 39.8% / X 29.5% / Paris FC 30.7%
Glicko: Lorient 38.3% / X 27.3% / Paris FC 34.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 43.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 39.8%

X 29.5%

2 30.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%

Over 2.5 45.4%

Under 2.5 54.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 27.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 05.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Stadium Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lorient 38%

💹 Market Lorient 3978%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Lorient - Paris FC

Lorient: Win 2.38 Lorient: Draw 3.30 Paris FC Win: 3.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Lorient bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Lorient menshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Paris FC bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 14

Statistics 24

Lineups 39

min Event Player Team

50' 50' Yellow Card | Adama Camara Paris FC

54' 54' Normal Goal | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng Lorient

67' 67' Substitution 1 | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | assist/sub out: Sambou Soumano Lorient

71' 71' Substitution 1 | Jonathan Ikoné | assist/sub out: Ilan Kebbal L. Daschner Paris FC

71' 71' Substitution 2 | Willem Geubbels | assist/sub out: Luca Koleosho Paris FC

71' 71' Substitution 3 | Maxime López | assist/sub out: Hamari Traoré K. Sulemana Paris FC

71' 71' Substitution 4 | Adama Camara | assist/sub out: Alimami Gory Paris FC

72' 72' Substitution 2 | Jean-Victor Makengo | assist/sub out: Aiyegun Tosin P. Ekwah Lorient

Metric Lorient Paris FC SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.21 0.95 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 0 final

Shots off target 5 2 final

Shots on target 3 5 final

Udary vsego 10 7 final

Fouls soversheno 8 6 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 3 0 final

Lorient #3 Montassar Talbi, #5 B. Meité, #8 N. Cadiou, #10 P. Pagis, #11 T. Le Bris, #12 Ahmadou Bamba Dieng, #17 J. Makengo, #25 A. Faye, #38 Y. Mvogo, #43 K. Kouassi, #62 A. Avom

Paris FC #5 M. Mbow, #9 W. Geubbels, #17 A. Camara, #18 M. Munetsi, #19 N. Sangui, #21 M. Lopez, #27 Moses Simon, #33 P. Lees-Melou, #35 K. Trapp, #42 D. Coppola, #93 J. Ikone

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Camara Paris FC football.player.assists 0

A. Camara Paris FC Dribling popytki 3

A. Camara Paris FC Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Camara Paris FC Edinoborstva vyigrano 8

A. Camara Paris FC Seyvy 0

A. Camara Paris FC football.player.minutes_played 71

A. Camara Paris FC Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Camara Paris FC Klyuchevye pasy 40

A. Camara Paris FC Reyting (staryy) 6.2

A. Camara Paris FC Bloki 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lorient 41.0% 38.3% market and model agree

Draw 29.5% 27.3% draw risk

Paris FC 29.4% 34.4%

xG - 1.26 : 1.18

Total 2.5 Over 43.5% - Under 56.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 38.3% / 27.3% / 34.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,530 / 1,494 Lorient / Paris FC

RD 76 / 79 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.09 market consensus · no value · model 34.4%

X 3.22 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.39 market consensus · no value · model 38.3%

Double chance

X2 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 61.7%

12 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%

1X 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 65.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.60 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.06 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.47 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.09 market consensus · no value · model 43.5%

Under 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 56.5%

Both teams to score

No 1.95 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.34 42.7%	2.42 41.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.30 43.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.33 30.0%	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.15 31.8%
	3.05 32.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.18 31.5%	3.00 33.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	1.92 52.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%
yes	1.77 56.5%	1.79 55.9%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.57 63.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%	1.53 65.4%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.34 74.6%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.36 73.5%	1.41 70.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.39 71.9%	1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.18 84.8%
Over 1.5	1.35 74.1%	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.41 70.9%
Over 2.25	—	1.82 55.0%	—
Over 2.5	2.05 48.8%	—	—
Over 3.5	3.65 27.4%	—	—
Over 4.5	7.00 14.3%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.10 32.3%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	2.08 48.1%	—
Under 2.5	1.75 57.1%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.28 78.1%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.09 91.7%	—	—

Match center

Lorient

Founded 1926

Paris FC

Founded 1969

Match center

Lorient

LA L. Abergel Ankle Injury

ST S. Touré Knee Injury

Paris FC

RR R. Riou Groin Injury

JL J. López Back Injury

Lorient Founded: 1926

Paris FC Founded: 1969

Match center

Lorient

L W D D D

21.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 0:1 Toulouse

14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 2:1 Lens

08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 1:1 Lille

01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 2:2 Auxerre

22.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 3:3 Nice

1 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Paris FC

W D D W D

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 3:2 Le Havre

15.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 0:0 Strasbourg

08.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 1:1 Lion

01.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 1:0 Nice

21.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 1:1 Toulouse

2 Wins

3 Draws

0 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.8 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLorient - Paris FC

Lorient

1 matches total

Paris FC

Lorient: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Paris FC: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Paris FC 0:2 (03.10 18:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 03.10 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

03.10 18:45 UTC

Ligue 1

Lorient

0:2

Paris FC

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.