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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
26.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lorient - Strasbourg

France Football
Stadium Stade du Moustoir
Lorient
Lorient
2 : 3
Finished
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Strasbourg — 37%

1 · Lorient35.8%
X · draw27.0%
2 · Strasbourg37.2%

Model estimate: win Lorient 35.8%, draw 27.0%, win Strasbourg 37.2%. Model favourite — Strasbourg.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lorient - Strasbourg April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lorient.

Line favourite market consensus: Lorient. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.17 / X 3.50 / 2 3.16
  • 1X2 market: Lorient 43.3% / X 26.9% / Strasbourg 29.8%
  • Glicko: Lorient 35.8% / X 27.0% / Strasbourg 37.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 42.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 43.4%
X 26.9%
2 29.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 52.8%
Under 2.5 47.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 6/10
Confidence 41.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 26.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Strasbourg 37%
💹 Market Lorient 4329%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lorient - Strasbourg

Lorient: Win 2.20 Lorient: Draw 3.50 Strasbourg Win: 3.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Lorient bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Lorient menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Strasbourg bo…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:3
Events 19
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
25' 25' Yellow Card | Lucas Høgsberg Strasbourg
26' 26' Normal Goal | Noah Cadiou | assist/sub out: Panos Katseris Davy Roef Lorient
54' 54' Penalty | Pablo Pagis Lorient
62' 62' Normal Goal | Sebastian Nanasi | assist/sub out: Rafael Luis Strasbourg
64' 64' Yellow Card | G. O'Neil Francesca Pace Strasbourg
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Ismael Doukouré | assist/sub out: Andrew Omobamidele Strasbourg
67' 67' Substitution 2 | Samir El Mourabet | assist/sub out: Abdoul Ouattara Strasbourg
67' 67' Substitution 3 | Julio Enciso | assist/sub out: Martial Godo Strasbourg
Metric Lorient Strasbourg SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.28 1.34 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final
Shots off target 6 4 final
Shots on target 6 5 final
Udary vsego 14 11 final
Fouls soversheno 9 16 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Lorient #6 I. Doukoure, #8 M. Oyedele, #11 S. Nanasi, #18 J. Mwanga, #19 J. Enciso, #24 Lucas Høgsberg, #27 S. Amo-Ameyaw, #29 Samir El Mourabet, #39 Mike Penders, #80 G. Yassine, #83 R. Luis
Strasbourg #5 B. Meité, #6 L. Abergel, #8 N. Cadiou, #10 P. Pagis, #12 Ahmadou Bamba Dieng, #17 J. Makengo, #25 A. Faye, #32 N. Adjei, #38 Y. Mvogo, #43 K. Kouassi, #77 P. Katseris
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Avom Strasbourg football.player.assists 0
A. Avom Strasbourg Dribling popytki 1
A. Avom Strasbourg Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. Avom Strasbourg Fouls soversheno 1
A. Avom Strasbourg Seyvy 0
A. Avom Strasbourg football.player.minutes_played 20
A. Avom Strasbourg Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Avom Strasbourg Klyuchevye pasy 16
A. Avom Strasbourg Reyting (staryy) 6.6
A. Avom Strasbourg Otbory vsego 12
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lorient 44.0% 35.8% market favourite
Draw 26.2% 27.0% draw risk
Strasbourg 29.7% 37.2% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.24 : 1.27
Total 2.5 Over 42.4% - Under 57.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.08
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.08

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.8% / 27.0% / 37.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,532 / 1,562 Lorient / Strasbourg
RD 73 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.16 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.2%
X 3.50 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.17 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.8%
Double chance
X2 1.65 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.2%
12 1.28 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.0%
1X 1.35 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.32 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.88 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.96 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 42.4%
Under 2.5 2.01 market consensus · value +15.8% · model 57.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.17 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.64 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.18 45.9% 2.24 44.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.18 45.9% 2.20 45.5%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.76 26.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.55 28.2% 3.50 28.6%
3.05 32.8% 3.31 30.2% 3.00 33.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.17 46.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.16 46.3%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.63 61.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.65 60.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% 1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75 — 1.27 78.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.35 74.1%
Over 2.25 — 1.56 64.1%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.86 53.8%
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3% —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% —
Under 1.5 3.80 26.3% —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% —
Under 4.5 1.13 88.5% —
Match center
Lorient
Founded 1926
Strasbourg
Founded 1906
Match center
Lorient
W L D L W
18.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:0 MarseilleMarseille
12.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:2 LionLion
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
21.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:1 ToulouseToulouse
14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:1 LensLens
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Strasbourg
L W W D D
19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 0:3 RennesRennes
04.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 3:1 NiceNice
22.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 3:2 NantesNantes
15.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 0:0 Paris FCParis FC
07.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 0:0 AuxerreAuxerre
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLorient - Strasbourg

Lorient
1 matches total
Strasbourg
Lorient: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Strasbourg: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (14.12 16:15 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient
0:0
Strasbourg
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.