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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
09.11.2025 14:00 UTC Match prediction
09.11.2025 14:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lorient - Toulouse

France Football
Lorient
Lorient
1 : 1
Finished
Toulouse
Toulouse

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lorient - Toulouse November 9, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toulouse.

Line favourite market consensus: Toulouse. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.99 / X 3.23 / 2 2.43
  • 1X2 market: Lorient 31.7% / X 29.4% / Toulouse 39.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.6%
1 31.7%
X 29.3%
2 39.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 45.1%
Under 2.5 54.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.11.2025 14:00 UTC
Match center

Lorient - Toulouse

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.44 market consensus · line only
X 3.24 market consensus · line only
1 3.00 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.39 market consensus · line only
12 1.34 market consensus · line only
1X 1.57 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.41 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.42 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.89 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.09 32.4%
X 3.30 30.3%
2.49 40.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.96 33.8% 3.05 32.8% 3.13 32.0% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.38 29.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3%
2.42 41.3% 2.42 41.3% 2.50 40.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.93 51.8% 1.97 50.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9% 2.06 48.5%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.81 55.3% 1.81 55.3% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.81 55.3% 1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.38 72.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0%
home_draw 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1%
Match center
Lorient
L D L D L
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:3 LensLens
29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
26.10 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:2 AngersAngers
19.10 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 3:3 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
03.10 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:2 Paris FCParis FC
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.2 Conceded
2 Points
Toulouse
D D L W W
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:2 RennesRennes
25.10 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 MonacoMonaco
19.10 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 4:0 MetzMetz
05.10 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:1 LionLion
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLorient - Toulouse

Lorient
0 matches total
Toulouse
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history