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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
25.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
25.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lyon - Auxerre

France Football
Stadium Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Capacity 61 556
Lyon
Lyon
3 : 2
Finished
Auxerre
Auxerre
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lyon — 52%

1 · Lyon51.9%
X · draw25.7%
2 · Auxerre22.4%

Model estimate: win Lyon 51.9%, draw 25.7%, win Auxerre 22.4%. Model favourite — Lyon.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lyon - Auxerre April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Strongest: Lyon - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.67 / X 3.83 / 2 4.99
  • 1X2 market: Lyon 56.4% / X 24.7% / Auxerre 18.9%
  • Glicko: Lyon 51.9% / X 25.7% / Auxerre 22.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 47.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0%
1 56.5%
X 24.6%
2 18.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 50.7%
Under 2.5 49.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 54.8%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 25.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Capacity 61,556

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lyon 52%
💹 Market Lyon 5639%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lyon - Auxerre

Lyon: Win 1.67 Lyon: Draw 3.60 Auxerre Win: 5.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Lyon bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Lyon menshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Auxerre bolshe 0.5: 1.57 Ind…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:2
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
19' 19' Normal Goal | R. Yaremchuk | assist/sub out: Abner Vinicius I. Karpuk Lyon
34' 34' Substitution 1 | O. Mangala | assist/sub out: T. Tessmann Lyon
35' 35' Normal Goal | S. Diomande Auxerre
52' 52' Yellow Card | D. Namaso Francisca Jorge Auxerre
58' 58' Substitution 2 | K. Merah | assist/sub out: C. Tolisso Lyon
58' 58' Substitution 3 | T. Morton | assist/sub out: P. Sulc Lyon
59' 59' Substitution 2 | F. Oppegard | assist/sub out: C. Akpa Auxerre
59' 59' Substitution 3 | F. Oppegard | assist/sub out: C. Akpa Auxerre
Metric Lyon Auxerre SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.12 0.52 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 5 final
Shots off target 5 2 final
Shots on target 6 2 final
Udary vsego 12 9 final
Fouls soversheno 11 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 0 1 final
Lyon #1 D. Greif, #9 Endrick, #16 Abner, #17 Afonso Moreira, #19 Moussa Niakhaté, #22 Clinton Mata, #23 T. Morton, #44 K. Merah, #77 R. Yaremchuk, #98 A. Maitland-Niles
Auxerre #5 K. Danois, #10 L. Sinayoko, #14 G. Mensah, #19 D. Namaso, #20 S. Diomandé, #22 F. Oppegård, #24 B. Okoh, #28 R. Faivre, #29 M. Senaya, #40 T. De Percin, #42 E. Owusu
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon football.player.assists 1
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Dribling popytki 2
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Seyvy 0
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Tochnost pasov % 2
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Klyuchevye pasy 40
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Pasy vsego 1
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Reyting (staryy) 7.2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lyon 57.1% 51.9% market and model agree
Draw 24.0% 25.7% draw risk
Auxerre 18.8% 22.4%
xG - 1.54 : 0.91
Total 2.5 Over 47.4% - Under 52.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 51.9% / 25.7% / 22.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,597 / 1,462 Lyon / Auxerre
RD 74 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.99 market consensus · no value · model 22.4%
X 3.83 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 51.9%
Double chance
X2 2.17 market consensus · weak value +4.4% · model 48.1%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 74.3%
1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 77.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.21 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.67 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.64 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 47.4%
Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 52.6%
Both teams to score
No 1.90 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.66 60.2% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9%
X 3.75 26.7% 4.11 24.3% 3.70 27.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.85 26.0% 4.00 25.0%
5.00 20.0% 5.18 19.3% 4.80 20.8% 5.25 19.1% 5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.88 53.2%
yes 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.15 46.5% 2.24 44.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.20 45.5%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.13 88.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% 1.24 80.7%
Over 1.75 — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.0 — 1.40 71.4%
Over 2.25 — 1.63 61.4%
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
Over 3.5 3.20 31.3% —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% —
Under 1.5 3.55 28.2% —
Under 2.5 1.90 52.6% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
Lyon
Founded 1950
Auxerre
Founded 1905
Match center
Lyon
W W D L D
19.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
12.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:0 LorientLorient
05.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 AngersAngers
22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:2 MonacoMonaco
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
8 Points
Auxerre
D D D W L
19.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 2:2 MonacoMonaco
11.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:0 NantesNantes
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:1 Le HavreLe Havre
21.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 3:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
13.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLyon - Auxerre

Lyon
3 matches total
Auxerre
Lyon: 0 (0%)
Draws:2 (66.7%)
Auxerre: 1 (33.3%)
Biggest win Lion 3:1 (13.04 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 13.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (27.10 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

23.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lion
0:0
Auxerre
13.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lion
3:1
Auxerre
27.10 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lion
2:2
Auxerre
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.