AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Lyon. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
04.09.2026 17:00 UTC
Ligue 1
Lyon take on Auxerre in football, in Ligue 1, on 4 September 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Lyon as the favourite at around 58%. Sportsbook prices (1 book) put that result at roughly 61%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 20%.
Latest form: Lyon 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost; Auxerre 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost. On the Glicko scale it is 1606 for Lyon against 1481 for Auxerre - a gap of 125 points. The two have met 3 times lately, and the full record is shown below on this page.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 3-point gap to the market. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 125 Glicko rating points, the model's 58% for Lyon. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Lyon — 58%
Model estimate: win Lyon 57.9%, draw 20.2%, win Auxerre 22.0%. Model favourite — Lyon.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 1.97 50.8% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.23 81.3% |
| 1x | 1.15 87.0% |
| x2 | 2.55 39.2% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.85 54.1% | |
| 2.35 42.6% | |
| 3.50 28.6% | |
| 4.10 24.4% | |
| 1.18 84.8% | |
| 1.95 51.3% | |
| 1.55 64.5% | |
| 1.25 80.0% | |
| 1.18 84.8% | |
| 4.10 24.4% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1 | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.20 83.3% |
| Over 2 | 1.30 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 3 | 2.10 47.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.60 38.5% |
| Over 4 | 3.80 26.3% |
| Over 4.5 | 4.30 23.3% |
| Under 0.5 | 10.00 10.0% |
| Under 1 | 8.50 11.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 4.20 23.8% |
| Under 2 | 3.25 30.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 2.15 46.5% |
| Under 3 | 1.70 58.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.47 68.0% |
| Under 4 | 1.22 82.0% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.16 86.2% |
Lyon
Auxerre
Lyon
Auxerre
Full head-to-head history: Lyon - Auxerre
Liga 1
Liga 1
Liga 1
The Lyon - Auxerre breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Lyon. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Lyon vs Auxerre from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
September 4, 2026.
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