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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
12.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction
12.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lyon - Lorient

France Football
Stadium Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Capacity 61 556
Lyon
Lyon
2 : 0
Finished
Lorient
Lorient
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lyon — 53%

1 · Lyon53.3%
X · draw25.5%
2 · Lorient21.3%

Model estimate: win Lyon 53.3%, draw 25.5%, win Lorient 21.3%. Model favourite — Lyon.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lyon - Lorient April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Strongest: Lyon - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.58 / X 4.15 / 2 5.71
  • 1X2 market: Lyon 60.4% / X 22.9% / Lorient 16.7%
  • Glicko: Lyon 53.3% / X 25.5% / Lorient 21.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 31.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 60.3%
X 23.0%
2 16.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 54.0%
Under 2.5 46.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 57.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 12.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Capacity 61,556

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lyon 53%
💹 Market Lyon 6038%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lyon - Lorient

Lyon: Win 1.55 Lyon: Draw 4.10 Lorient Win: 6.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Lyon bolshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Lyon menshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Lorient bolshe 0.5: 1.62 Ind…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 36
min Event Player Team
23' 23' Substitution 1 | T. Le Bris | assist/sub out: P. Katseris Lorient
45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | A. Maitland-Niles Vinicius Junior Lyon
46' 46' Substitution 1 | R. Ghezzal | assist/sub out: C. Tolisso Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio Lyon
46' 46' Substitution 2 | N. Nartey | assist/sub out: O. Mangala Lyon
46' 46' Substitution 3 | S. Kango | assist/sub out: Endrick Lyon
49' 49' Normal Goal | R. Yaremchuk I. Karpuk Lyon
56' 56' Normal Goal | C. Tolisso Santiago Paz Lyon
67' 67' Penalty cancelled | B. Dieng Lorient
Metric Lyon Lorient SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.16 1.87 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 0 final
Shots off target 4 6 final
Shots on target 5 6 final
Udary vsego 11 12 final
Fouls soversheno 17 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 4 1 final
Offsides 0 2 final
Lyon #1 D. Greif, #16 Abner, #17 Afonso Moreira, #18 R. Ghezzal, #19 Moussa Niakhaté, #22 Clinton Mata, #23 T. Morton, #77 R. Yaremchuk, #98 A. Maitland-Niles, #99 N. Nartey
Lorient #5 B. Meité, #8 N. Cadiou, #10 P. Pagis, #11 T. Le Bris, #12 Ahmadou Bamba Dieng, #17 J. Makengo, #25 A. Faye, #32 N. Adjei, #38 Y. Mvogo, #43 K. Kouassi, #62 A. Avom
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Karabec Lyon Seyvy 0
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon football.player.assists 0
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Dribling popytki 3
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Fouls soversheno 1
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Seyvy 0
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Klyuchevye pasy 29
A. Maitland-Niles Lyon Reyting (staryy) 6.3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lyon 61.1% 53.3% market and model agree
Draw 22.4% 25.5% draw risk
Lorient 16.5% 21.3%
xG - 1.56 : 0.88
Total 2.5 Over 31.2% - Under 68.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.08
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.08

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 53.3% / 25.5% / 21.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,570 / 1,526 Lyon / Lorient
RD 75 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.71 market consensus · no value · model 21.3%
X 4.15 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 53.3%
Double chance
X2 2.36 market consensus · weak value +10.2% · model 46.7%
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
1X 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 78.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.40 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.87 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.77 market consensus · no value · model 31.2%
Under 2.5 2.08 market consensus · value +43.1% · model 68.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.96 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.56 64.1% 1.56 64.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7%
X 4.00 25.0% 4.25 23.5% 4.42 22.6% 4.10 24.4% 4.20 23.8% 4.00 25.0%
5.60 17.9% 5.70 17.5% 5.89 17.0% 6.00 16.7% 5.90 17.0% 6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.95 51.3% 1.99 50.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.79 55.9% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.78 56.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.35 42.6% 2.46 40.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.38 42.0%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.15 87.0%
home_draw 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.12 89.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Over 2.5 1.73 57.8% 1.86 53.8% —
Over 2.75 — 1.94 51.6% —
Over 3.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Over 4.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 3.95 25.3% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% 2.04 49.0% —
Under 2.75 — 1.96 51.0% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.15 87.0% — —
Match center
Lyon
Founded 1950
Lorient
Founded 1926
Match center
Lyon
CT Corentin Tolisso Injury
NT N. Tagliafico Red Card
Lorient
LA L. Abergel Ankle Injury
MT Montassar Talbi Injury
Lyon Founded: 1950
Lorient Founded: 1926
Match center
Lyon
D L D D L
05.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 AngersAngers
22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:2 MonacoMonaco
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
08.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
01.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:3 MarseilleMarseille
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.2 Conceded
3 Points
Lorient
D L W D D
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
21.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:1 ToulouseToulouse
14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:1 LensLens
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 LilleLille
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:2 AuxerreAuxerre
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLyon - Lorient

Lyon
1 matches total
Lorient
Lyon: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lorient: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lorient 0:1 (07.12 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 07.12 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

07.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lion
0:1
Lorient
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.