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Ligue 1 France

10.04.2026 19:05 UTC Match prediction

10.04.2026 19:05 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Marseille - Metz

France Football

Stadium Orange Vélodrome

Capacity 67 394

Marseille

3 : 1

Finished

Metz

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Marseille — 76%

1 · Marseille ✓ Pick75.8%

market77%

X · draw15.5%

market15%

2 · Metz8.6%

market8%

Model estimate: win Marseille 75.8%, draw 15.5%, win Metz 8.6%. Model favourite — Marseille.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Metz April 10, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Strongest: Marseille - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.24 / X 6.46 / 2 11.46
1X2 market: Marseille 76.8% / X 14.8% / Metz 8.4%
Glicko: Marseille 75.8% / X 15.5% / Metz 8.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 35.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 ✓ Pick 76.9%

X 14.8%

2 8.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%

Over 2.5 67.7%

Under 2.5 32.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 77.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 10.04.2026 19:05 UTC

Stadium Orange Vélodrome (Marseille)

Capacity 67,394

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Marseille 76%

💹 Market Marseille 7682%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Marseille - Metz

Marseille: Win 1.22 Marseille: Draw 6.25 Metz Win: 12.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Marseille bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Marseille menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Metz bolsh…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 14

Statistics 24

Lineups 39

min Event Player Team

13' 13' Normal Goal | P. Aubameyang R. Asencio Marseille

45+2' 45+2' Yellow Card | F. Medina Aleix Cisteró Marseille

48' 48' Normal Goal | I. Paixao | assist/sub out: M. Greenwood Cristiano Ronaldo Marseille

49' 49' Normal Goal | G. Tsitaishvili | assist/sub out: G. Hein N. Seiwald Metz

56' 56' Yellow Card | M. Colin Miroslava Medvedeva Metz

72' 72' Substitution 4 | P. Aubameyang | assist/sub out: A. Vermeeren R. Asencio Marseille

81' 81' Substitution 4 | J. Deminguet | assist/sub out: N. Mbala N. Huygevelde Metz

82' 82' Substitution 9 | Q. Timber | assist/sub out: T. Nnadi Marseille

Metric Marseille Metz SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.55 0.48 final

Zablokirovannye udary 0 1 final

Shots off target 9 3 final

Shots on target 9 2 final

Udary vsego 18 6 final

Fouls soversheno 12 8 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 3 0 final

Marseille #1 Gerónimo Rulli, #5 L. Balerdi, #9 Amine Gouiri, #10 M. Greenwood, #14 I. Paixao, #17 P. Aubameyang, #22 T. Weah, #23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, #27 Q. Timber, #28 B. Pavard, #32 Facundo Medina

Metz #2 M. Colin, #5 J. Gbamin, #7 G. Tsitaishvili, #10 G. Hein, #12 A. Touré, #20 J. Deminguet, #30 H. Diallo, #38 Sadibou Sané, #39 K. Kouao, #61 P. Sy, #70 B. Sarr

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Vermeeren Marseille football.player.assists 0

A. Vermeeren Marseille Dribling popytki 2

A. Vermeeren Marseille Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Vermeeren Marseille Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

A. Vermeeren Marseille Seyvy 0

A. Vermeeren Marseille football.player.minutes_played 18

A. Vermeeren Marseille Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Vermeeren Marseille Klyuchevye pasy 13

A. Vermeeren Marseille Reyting (staryy) 7

A. Vermeeren Marseille Bloki 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Marseille 78.0% 75.8% market and model agree

Draw 14.3% 15.5% draw risk

Metz 7.7% 8.6%

xG - 2.44 : 0.69

Total 2.5 Over 35.0% - Under 65.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 75.8% / 15.5% / 8.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,606 / 1,362 Marseille / Metz

RD 77 / 83 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 9.73 market consensus · no value · model 8.6%

X 6.46 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 75.8%

Double chance

X2 4.01 market consensus · no value · model 24.2%

12 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 84.5%

1X 1.05 market consensus · no value · model 91.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.90 market consensus · line only

2 -1 3.28 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.24 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.31 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 35.0%

Under 2.5 2.91 market consensus · weak value +89.0% · model 65.0%

Both teams to score

No 1.93 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.23 81.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.28 78.1%	1.22 82.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.22 82.0%
X	5.80 17.2%	6.60 15.2%	6.62 15.1%	6.25 16.0%	6.40 15.6%	7.00 14.3%
	12.00 8.3%	10.50 9.5%	11.70 8.6%	12.00 8.3%	11.25 8.9%	13.00 7.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.94 51.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.92 52.1%	1.87 53.5%
yes	1.77 56.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	3.95 25.3%	4.04 24.8%	4.00 25.0%	3.95 25.3%	4.33 23.1%	4.00 25.0%
home_away	1.11 90.1%	1.14 87.7%	1.12 89.3%	1.13 88.5%	1.08 92.6%	1.11 90.1%
home_draw	1.04 96.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.04 96.2%	1.07 93.5%	1.03 97.1%	1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5	1.12 89.3%	—	—
Over 2.5	1.40 71.4%	—	—
Over 3.0	—	1.61 62.1%	—
Over 3.25	—	1.99 50.3%	—
Over 3.5	2.00 50.0%	2.04 49.0%	—
Over 4.5	3.25 30.8%	—	—
Over 5.5	5.75 17.4%	—	—
Under 1.5	5.75 17.4%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.88 34.7%	—	—
Under 3.0	—	2.29 43.7%	—
Under 3.25	—	1.91 52.4%	—
Under 3.5	1.80 55.6%	1.86 53.8%	—
Under 4.5	1.33 75.2%	—	—
Under 5.5	1.12 89.3%	—	—

Match center

Marseille

Founded 1899

Metz

Founded 1932

Match center

Marseille

GK G. Kondogbia Thigh Injury

NA N. Aguerd Groin Injury

Metz

BS B. Stambouli Ribs Injury

BT B. Traoré Calf Injury

Marseille Founded: 1899

Metz Founded: 1932

Match center

Marseille

L L W W W

05.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:2 Monaco

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:2 Lille

13.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:0 Auxerre

07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:0 Toulouse

01.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 3:2 Lion

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

9 Points

Metz

D D L L L

05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 0:0 Nantes

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 0:0 Rennes

15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 3:4 Toulouse

08.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 0:3 Lens

01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 0:1 Stade Brestois 29

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

2 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Metz

Marseille

1 matches total

Metz

Marseille: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Metz: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Marseille 3:0 (04.10 15:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 04.10 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 3

Match history

04.10 15:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Marseille

3:0

Metz

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.