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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
14.12.2025 19:45 UTC Match prediction
14.12.2025 19:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Marseille - Monaco

France Football
Marseille
Marseille
1 : 0
Finished
Monaco
Monaco

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Monaco December 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.94 / X 3.80 / 2 3.68
  • 1X2 market: Marseille 49.1% / X 25.1% / Monaco 25.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 62.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 49.1%
X 25.1%
2 25.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5 62.4%
Under 2.5 37.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.12.2025 19:45 UTC
Match center

Marseille - Monaco

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.69 market consensus · line only
X 3.81 market consensus · line only
1 1.94 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.88 market consensus · line only
12 1.26 market consensus · line only
1X 1.28 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.49 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.70 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.51 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.58 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.46 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.96 51.0%
X 3.96 25.3%
3.74 26.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.90 25.6% 3.94 25.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0% 3.85 26.0%
3.65 27.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.96 25.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0% 3.85 26.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.55 39.2% 2.69 37.2% 2.56 39.1% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.63 38.0% 2.52 39.7% 2.70 37.0%
yes 1.45 69.0% 1.45 69.0% 1.46 68.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.51 66.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 1.94 51.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.93 51.8%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1%
Match center
Marseille
L D W W W
05.12 20:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:1 LilleLille
29.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 2:2 ToulouseToulouse
21.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 5:1 NiceNice
08.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
01.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 AuxerreAuxerre
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Monaco
L W L L L
05.12 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
29.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:0 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
22.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:4 RennesRennes
08.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:4 LensLens
01.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:1 Paris FCParis FC
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Monaco

Marseille
1 matches total
Monaco
Marseille: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Monaco: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Monaco 0:3 (12.04 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 12.04 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

12.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille
0:3
Monaco