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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
04.01.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
04.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Marseille - Nantes

France Football
Marseille
Marseille
0 : 2
Finished
Nantes
Nantes

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Nantes January 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.24 / X 6.30 / 2 11.71
  • 1X2 market: Marseille 76.7% / X 15.1% / Nantes 8.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 76.8%
X 15.1%
2 8.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 63.2%
Under 2.5 36.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Match center

Marseille - Nantes

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 6.32 market consensus · line only
1 1.24 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 4.07 market consensus · line only
12 1.12 market consensus · line only
1X 1.05 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.95 market consensus · line only
2 -1 3.27 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 9.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.24 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.56 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.76 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.25 80.0%
X 6.54 15.3%
12.17 8.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4%
X 6.00 16.7% 6.40 15.6% 6.45 15.5% 5.75 17.4% 6.50 15.4% 6.70 14.9%
10.25 9.8% 11.00 9.1% 13.70 7.3% 11.00 9.1% 11.00 9.1% 12.50 8.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.95 51.3% 1.80 55.6% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.98 50.5% 2.02 49.5% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 3.70 27.0% 4.18 23.9% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.15 24.1% 4.33 23.1%
home_away 1.11 90.1% 1.15 87.0% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.12 89.3% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.04 96.2%
Match center
Marseille
W L D W W
14.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 MonacoMonaco
05.12 20:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:1 LilleLille
29.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 2:2 ToulouseToulouse
21.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 5:1 NiceNice
08.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Nantes
L L L D D
12.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:4 AngersAngers
06.12 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:2 LensLens
30.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:3 LionLion
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:1 LorientLorient
08.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:1 Le HavreLe Havre
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.2 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Nantes

Marseille
0 matches total
Nantes
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history