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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
26.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Marseille - Nice

France Futbol
Stadium Orange Vélodrome
Referee W. Delajod
Capacity 67 394
Marseille
Marseille
1 : 1
Finished
Nice
Nice
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Marseille — 64%

1 · Marseille ✓ Прогноз63.7%
market64%
X · draw20.4%
market20%
2 · Nice15.9%
market16%

Model estimate: win Marseille 63.7%, draw 20.4%, win Nice 15.9%. Model favourite — Marseille.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Nice 26 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Strongest: Marseille - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.47 / X 4.71 / 2 5.86
  • 1X2 market: Marseille 63.9% / X 20.0% / Nice 16.1%
  • Glicko: Marseille 63.7% / X 20.4% / Nice 15.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 36.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 ✓ Прогноз 64.0%
X 20.0%
2 16.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.8%
Over 2.5 65.5%
Under 2.5 34.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 6/7
Confidence 65.2%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 1:0

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

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Match center
Start 26.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Orange Vélodrome (Marseille)
Referee W. Delajod
Capacity 67,394

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Marseille 64%
💹 Market Marseille 6391%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Marseille - Nice

Marseille: Победа 1.50 Marseille: Ничья 4.50 Nice Победа: 6.00 Общий тотал голов больше 3.5: 2.10 Общий тотал голов меньше 3.5: 1.73 Индивидуальный тотал голов Marseille больше 2.5: 2.25 Индивидуальный тотал голов Marseille меньше 2.5: 1.57 Индивидуальный тотал голов Nice больше…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
29' 29' Yellow Card | Emerson E. Dinkçi Marseille
44' 44' Yellow Card | Elye Wahi Nice
44' 44' Yellow Card | Facundo Medina Aleix Cisteró Marseille
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Morgan Sanson | assist/sub out: Sofiane Diop Arturo Calabresi Nice
62' 62' Substitution 1 | Emerson | assist/sub out: Tadjidine Mmadi E. Dinkçi Marseille
63' 63' Substitution 2 | Arthur Vermeeren | assist/sub out: Mason Greenwood Marseille
66' 66' Normal Goal | Pierre Emile Hojbjerg | assist/sub out: Tochukwu Nnadi Ayumu Seko Marseille
67' 67' Substitution 2 | Mohamed-Ali Cho | assist/sub out: Kaïl Boudache Nice
Metric Marseille Nice SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 2.32 1.46 final
Заблокированные удары 6 1 final
Удары мимо 12 2 final
Удары в створ 6 2 final
Удары всего 24 5 final
Фолы совершено 14 7 final
Желтые карточки 4 1 final
Офсайды 0 2 final
Marseille #1 Gerónimo Rulli, #5 L. Balerdi, #6 T. Nnadi, #17 P. Aubameyang, #18 A. Vermeeren, #22 T. Weah, #23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, #27 Q. Timber, #28 B. Pavard, #32 Facundo Medina, #33 Emerson
Nice #6 Hicham Boudaoui, #8 Morgan Sanson, #11 E. Wahi, #25 Mohamed Ali Cho, #26 Melvin Bard, #28 Abdulay Bah, #33 Antoine Mendy, #37 Kojo Peprah Oppong, #80 Yehvann Diouf, #92 Jonathan Clauss, #99 Salis Abdul Samed
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Vermeeren Marseille football.player.assists 0
A. Vermeeren Marseille Дриблинг попытки 3
A. Vermeeren Marseille Дриблинг успешно 2
A. Vermeeren Marseille Единоборства всего 2
A. Vermeeren Marseille Единоборства выиграно 8
A. Vermeeren Marseille Фолы на игроке 1
A. Vermeeren Marseille Сейвы 0
A. Vermeeren Marseille football.player.minutes_played 63
A. Vermeeren Marseille Точность пасов % 1
A. Vermeeren Marseille Ключевые пасы 34
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Marseille 64.3% 63.7% market and model agree
Draw 19.7% 20.4% draw risk
Nice 16.0% 15.9%
xG - 2.05 : 0.92
Total 2.5 Over 36.4% - Under 63.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 63.7% / 20.4% / 15.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,593 / 1,458 Marseille / Nice
RD 76 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.86 market consensus · no value · model 15.9%
X 4.71 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 63.7%
Double chance
X2 2.60 market consensus · no value · model 36.3%
12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 79.6%
1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 84.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.65 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.10 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.75 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 36.4%
Under 2.5 2.71 market consensus · weak value +72.4% · model 63.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.31 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.56 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
П1 1.46 68.5% 1.54 64.9% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0%
Х 4.65 21.5% 5.03 19.9% 4.50 22.2% 4.50 22.2% 4.55 22.0% 5.00 20.0%
П2 5.90 17.0% 6.05 16.5% 5.50 18.2% 6.00 16.7% 6.10 16.4% 6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.30 43.5% 2.32 43.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.32 43.1% 2.38 42.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.33 42.9%
yes 1.55 64.5% 1.55 64.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.65 37.7% 2.67 37.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.65 37.7% 2.63 38.0%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.11 90.1% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7% 1.11 90.1% 1.15 87.0% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.5 1.14 87.7% 1.08 92.6%
ТБ 1.75 — 1.10 90.9%
ТБ 2.0 — 1.14 87.7%
ТБ 2.25 — 1.27 78.7%
ТБ 2.5 1.45 69.0% 1.41 70.9%
ТБ 2.75 — 1.51 66.2%
ТБ 3.5 2.10 47.6% —
ТБ 4.5 3.45 29.0% —
ТБ 5.5 6.25 16.0% —
ТМ 1.5 5.50 18.2% —
ТМ 2.5 2.70 37.0% —
ТМ 3.5 1.70 58.8% —
ТМ 4.5 1.30 76.9% —
ТМ 5.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
Marseille
Founded 1899
Nice
Founded 1904
Match center
Marseille
L W L L W
18.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:2 LorientLorient
10.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:1 MetzMetz
05.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:2 MonacoMonaco
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:2 LilleLille
13.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 AuxerreAuxerre
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Nice
D D L L W
18.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:0 LilleLille
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:1 Le HavreLe Havre
04.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
21.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:4 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
14.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:0 AngersAngers
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Nice

Marseille
2 matches total
Nice
Marseille: 2 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Nice: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Marseille 5:1 (21.11 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (5:1, 21.11 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

7 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 7

Match history

21.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille
5:1
Nice
14.09 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille
2:0
Nice
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.