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Ligue 1 France

34 round 17.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

17.05.2026 19:00 UTC 34 round

Finished

Ligue 1

Marseille - Rennes

France Football

Marseille

3 : 1

Finished

Rennes

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Rennes May 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.04 / X 3.94 / 2 3.20
1X2 market: Marseille 46.4% / X 24.0% / Rennes 29.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 69.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%

1 46.4%

X 24.0%

2 29.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.9%

Over 2.5 69.3%

Under 2.5 30.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Marseille

Main outcome Marseille

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 52.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Oranzh Velodrom (Marsel, France), vmestimost: 67394

Referee Ryuddi Byuke (Amen)

Start 17.05.2026 19:00 UTC

Match center

Marseille - Rennes

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Marsel - Renn, 17 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship France po futbolu (Liga 1) 2025-2026, 34 round. Marsel - Renn, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 15

Statistics 22

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

2' 2' Normal Goal | P. Hojbjerg | assist/sub out: M. Greenwood Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Marseille

10' 10' Normal Goal | A. Gouiri Amine Gouiri Marseille

46' 46' Substitution 1 | S. Szymanski | assist/sub out: B. Embolo S. Szymański Rennes

49' 49' Yellow Card | P. Hojbjerg Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Marseille

55' 55' Normal Goal | P. Aubameyang | assist/sub out: P. Hojbjerg P. Aubameyang Marseille

67' 67' Substitution 4 | M. Tamari | assist/sub out: A. Nordin Mousa Tamari Rennes

72' 72' Substitution 2 | I. Paixao | assist/sub out: A. Vermeeren I. Paixao Marseille

76' 76' Yellow Card | A. Gouiri Amine Gouiri Marseille

Metric Marseille Rennes SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.92 2.49 final

Zablokirovannye udary 7 7 final

Shots off target 9 14 final

Shots on target 11 6 final

Udary vsego 27 27 final

Fouls soversheno 11 10 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final

Offsides 2 2 final

Marseille #1 Gerónimo Rulli, #14 I. Paixao, #17 P. Aubameyang, #23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, #33 Emerson, #6 T. Nnadi, #9 Amine Gouiri, #32 Facundo Medina, #5 L. Balerdi, #10 M. Greenwood, #22 T. Weah

Rennes #9 E. Lepaul, #10 L. Blas, #21 V. Rongier, #26 Q. Merlin, #50 M. Silistrie, #24 A. Rouault, #45 M. Camara, #17 S. Szymański, #48 A. Ait Boudlal, #11 Mousa Tamari, #18 M. Nagida

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes football.player.assists 0

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Nordin Rennes football.player.assists 1

A. Nordin Rennes football.player.minutes_played 23

A. Rouault Rennes football.player.assists 0

A. Rouault Rennes football.player.minutes_played 90

B. Embolo Rennes football.player.assists 0

B. Embolo Rennes football.player.minutes_played 45

E. Lepaul Rennes football.player.assists 0

E. Lepaul Rennes football.player.goals 1

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 9.50 Fonbet · line only

1 1.08 Fonbet · line only

2 3.20 market consensus · line only

Double chance

12 1.04 Fonbet · line only

1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only

X2 6.40 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 2.25 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 5.40 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.65 Fonbet · line only

1 +1 1.10 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.08 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 6.00 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.27 Fonbet · line only

Yes 3.40 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.06 48.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.00 50.0%
X	3.85 26.0%	4.16 24.0%	3.75 26.7%	4.00 25.0%	3.90 25.6%	3.90 25.6%
	3.05 32.8%	3.48 28.7%	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.25 30.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	3.10 32.3%	3.08 32.5%	3.00 33.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.04 32.9%	3.00 33.3%
yes	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.34 74.6%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.35 74.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.73 57.8%	1.86 53.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.73 57.8%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.36 73.5%	1.35 74.1%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.38 72.5%	1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5	1.11 90.1%	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.75	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 2.5	1.36 73.5%	—
Over 3.5	1.85 54.1%	—
Over 4.5	2.95 33.9%	—
Over 5.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	6.25 16.0%	—
Under 2.5	3.10 32.3%	—
Under 3.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.38 72.5%	—
Under 5.5	1.17 85.5%	—

Match center

Marseille

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Rennes

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Zhoffrey Kondogbia Nayef Ager Khamed Zhunior Traore Khimad Abdelli Travmirovannye Pshemyslav Frankovski Diskvalifitsirovannye Bris Samba CHAMP

Match center

Marseille

W L D L W

10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:0 Le Havre

02.05 13:00 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 0:3 Nantes

26.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:1 Nice

18.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 0:2 Lorient

10.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 3:1 Metz

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.4 Conceded

7 Points

Rennes

W L W W W

10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 2:1 Paris FC

03.05 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 2:4 Lion

26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 2:1 Nantes

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 3:0 Strasbourg

11.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 2:1 Angers

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Rennes

Marseille

2 matches total

Rennes

Marseille: 1 (50%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Rennes: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Marseille 4:2 (17.05 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (4:2, 17.05 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 4

Match history

15.08 18:45 UTC

Ligue 1

Marseille

0:1

Rennes

17.05 19:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Marseille

4:2

Rennes

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Marseille

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Rennes

33 Games 33

17 Wins 17

5 Draws 8

11 Losses 8

60 Scored 58

44 Conceded 47

56 Points 59

102.1 Attacks 95.7

51.94 Dangerous attacks 46.33

0 Big chances 0

14.24 Shots on goal 13.24

5.45 Shots on target 4.97

ya 0.12 Goly Per-Emil Kheyberg Meyson Grinvud 1:0 2' Amin Guiri 2:0 10' Per-Emerik Obameyang Per-Emil Kheyberg 3:0 55' Esteban Lepol Arno Norden 3:1 84' Nakazaniya Per-Emil Kheyberg 49' Amin Guiri 76' Makhdi Kamara 79' Benzhamen Pavar 90+5'

Marsel Renn 33 Games 33 17 Wins 17 5 Draws 8 11 Losses 8 60 Scored 58 44 Conceded 47 56 Points 59 102.1 Attacks 95.7 51.94 Dangerous attacks 46.33 0 Big chances 0 14.24 Shots on goal 13.24 5.45 Udary v stvor 4.97 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.24 Uglovye 5.85 1.21 Offsaydy 2.45 12.7 Foly 12.39 57.3 % vladeniya myachom 53.3 2.27 Warnings 1.7 0.12 Sendoffs 0.12 Goly Per-Emil Kheyberg Meyson Grinvud 1:0 2' Amin Guiri 2:0 10' Per-Emerik Obameyang Per-Emil Kheyberg 3:0 55' Esteban Lepol Arno Norden 3:1 84' Nakazaniya Per-Emil Kheyberg 49' Amin Guiri 76' Makhdi Kamara 79' Benzhamen Pavar 90+5'