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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
28.09.2025 15:15 UTC Match prediction
28.09.2025 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Metz - Le Havre

France Football
Metz
Metz
0 : 0
Finished
Le Havre
Le Havre

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Le Havre September 28, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Metz.

Line favourite market consensus: Metz. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.65 / X 3.32 / 2 2.69
  • 1X2 market: Metz 36.0% / X 28.7% / Le Havre 35.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 35.9%
X 28.7%
2 35.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 49.0%
Under 2.5 51.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.09.2025 15:15 UTC
Match center

Metz - Le Havre

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.70 market consensus · line only
X 3.32 market consensus · line only
1 2.65 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.49 market consensus · line only
12 1.33 market consensus · line only
1X 1.46 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.20 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.70 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.53 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.06 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.69 37.2%
X 3.35 29.9%
2.80 35.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.62 38.2% 2.59 38.6% 2.75 36.4% 2.63 38.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.65 37.7%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.46 28.9% 3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3%
2.68 37.3% 2.71 36.9% 2.76 36.2% 2.60 38.5% 2.75 36.4% 2.72 36.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.05 48.8% 2.11 47.4% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.19 45.7%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.73 57.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.51 66.2% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.35 74.1%
home_draw 1.45 69.0% 1.51 66.2% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7%
Match center
Metz
L D L L L
21.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:5 MonacoMonaco
14.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 AngersAngers
31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:3 Paris FCParis FC
23.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 LionLion
17.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.6 Conceded
1 Points
Le Havre
D L W L L
21.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:1 LorientLorient
14.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 0:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 3:1 NiceNice
24.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:2 LensLens
16.08 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:3 MonacoMonaco
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Le Havre

Metz
0 matches total
Le Havre
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history