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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
04.10.2025 15:00 UTC Match prediction
04.10.2025 15:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Metz - Marseille

France Football
Metz
Metz
0 : 3
Finished
Marseille
Marseille

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Marseille October 4, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.09 / X 4.51 / 2 1.51
  • 1X2 market: Metz 15.7% / X 21.1% / Marseille 63.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 15.7%
X 21.2%
2 63.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 59.0%
Under 2.5 41.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.10.2025 15:00 UTC
Match center

Metz - Marseille

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.51 market consensus · line only
X 4.52 market consensus · line only
1 6.11 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.14 market consensus · line only
12 1.20 market consensus · line only
1X 2.57 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.61 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.32 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
6.40 15.6%
X 4.61 21.7%
1.51 66.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
5.90 17.0% 5.80 17.2% 6.23 16.1% 6.00 16.7% 6.00 16.7% 6.10 16.4%
X 4.50 22.2% 4.65 21.5% 4.74 21.1% 4.33 23.1% 4.50 22.2% 4.65 21.5%
1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.05 48.8% 2.09 47.9% 2.07 48.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.03 49.3% 2.13 47.0%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.69 59.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.13 88.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 2.50 40.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.65 37.7%
Match center
Metz
D L D L L
28.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
21.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:5 MonacoMonaco
14.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 AngersAngers
31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:3 Paris FCParis FC
23.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 LionLion
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.4 Conceded
2 Points
Marseille
W W W L W
26.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 2:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
22.09 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
12.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 4:0 LorientLorient
31.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:1 LionLion
23.08 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 5:2 Paris FCParis FC
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Marseille

Metz
0 matches total
Marseille
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history