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Ligue 1 France

32 round 02.05.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction

02.05.2026 17:00 UTC 32 round

Finished

Ligue 1

Metz - Monaco

France Football

Stadium Stade Saint-Symphorien

Referee R. Buquet

Capacity 30 000

Metz

1 : 2

Finished

Monaco

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Monaco — 69%

1 · Metz11.9%

market13%

X · draw19.2%

market17%

2 · Monaco ✓ Pick68.9%

market70%

Model estimate: win Metz 11.9%, draw 19.2%, win Monaco 68.9%. Model favourite — Monaco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Monaco May 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Strongest: Monaco - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 7.37 / X 5.62 / 2 1.35
1X2 market: Metz 12.9% / X 16.9% / Monaco 70.2%
Glicko: Metz 11.9% / X 19.2% / Monaco 68.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 29.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 12.9%

X 16.9%

2 ✓ Pick 70.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.1%

Over 2.5 73.5%

Under 2.5 26.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 69.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Sen-Simforen (Metts, France), 24 083 zritelya (80% pri vmestimosti 30 000)

Referee Ryuddi Byuke (Amen)

Start 02.05.2026 17:00 UTC

Capacity 30,000

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Monaco 69%

💹 Market Monaco 7019%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Metz - Monaco

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Metts - Monako, 2 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship France po futbolu (Liga 1) 2025-2026, 32 round. Metts - Monako, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 14

Statistics 24

Lineups 80

min Event Player Team

49' 49' Normal Goal | J. Deminguet | assist/sub out: G. Hein J. Deminguet Metz

58' 58' Substitution 2 | S. Adingra | assist/sub out: A. Fati S. Adingra Monaco

58' 58' Substitution 3 | L. Camara | assist/sub out: M. Coulibaly Lamine Camara Monaco

58' 58' Substitution 1 | P. Pogba | assist/sub out: A. Bamba P. Pogba Monaco

61' 61' Normal Goal | F. Balogun | assist/sub out: M. Akliouche F. Balogun Monaco

62' 62' Yellow Card | M. Coulibaly M. Coulibaly Monaco

74' 74' Substitution 4 | A. Golovin | assist/sub out: M. Biereth A. Golovin Monaco

74' 74' Substitution 1 | B. Stambouli | assist/sub out: B. Munongo B. Stambouli Metz

Metric Metz Monaco SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.22 1.25 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 5 final

Shots off target 10 7 final

Shots on target 1 3 final

Udary vsego 13 15 final

Fouls soversheno 10 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final

Offsides 1 1 final

Metz #1 L. Hradecky, #4 J. Teze, #5 T. Kehrer, #6 D. Zakaria, #8 P. Pogba, #9 F. Balogun, #10 A. Golovin, #11 Maghnes Akliouche, #13 C. Mawissa, #15 Lamine Camara, #24 S. Adingra

Monaco #5 J. Gbamin, #7 G. Tsitaishvili, #10 G. Hein, #11 G. Kvilitaia, #15 T. Yegbe, #20 J. Deminguet, #21 B. Stambouli, #34 N. Mbala, #38 Sadibou Sané, #61 P. Sy, #70 B. Sarr

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bamba Monaco football.player.minutes_played 38

A. Fati Monaco football.player.goals 1

A. Fati Monaco football.player.minutes_played 38

A. Golovin Monaco football.player.minutes_played 74

B. Munongo Monaco Edinoborstva vsego 1

B. Munongo Monaco Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

B. Munongo Monaco Seyvy 0

B. Munongo Monaco Klyuchevye pasy 10

B. Munongo Monaco Reyting (staryy) 6.5

B. Munongo Monaco Otbory vsego 9

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Metz 12.7% 11.9%

Draw 16.8% 19.2% draw risk

Monaco 70.6% 68.9% market and model agree

xG - 0.74 : 2.09

Total 2.5 Over 29.7% - Under 70.3%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 11.9% / 19.2% / 68.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,355 / 1,582 Metz / Monaco

RD 80 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 68.9%

X 5.62 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 7.37 market consensus · no value · model 11.9%

Double chance

X2 1.09 market consensus · no value · model 88.1%

12 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 80.8%

1X 3.14 market consensus · no value · model 31.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.11 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only

2 +1 1.48 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 29.7%

Under 2.5 3.53 market consensus · weak value +148.2% · model 70.3%

Both teams to score

No 2.60 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.44 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	7.50 13.3%	7.90 12.7%	6.50 15.4%	7.50 13.3%	7.80 12.8%	7.50 13.3%
X	5.10 19.6%	6.04 16.6%	5.00 20.0%	5.75 17.4%	5.80 17.2%	5.50 18.2%
	1.35 74.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.60 38.5%	2.59 38.6%	2.63 38.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.55 39.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.63 38.0%	2.57 38.9%	2.55 39.2%
yes	1.44 69.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.08 92.6%	1.10 90.9%	1.10 90.9%	1.10 90.9%	1.11 90.1%	1.06 94.3%
home_away	1.11 90.1%	1.16 86.2%	1.15 87.0%	1.14 87.7%	1.15 87.0%	1.11 90.1%
home_draw	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5	1.09 91.7%	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.75	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 2.0	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 2.25	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 2.5	1.30 76.9%	1.24 80.7%
Over 2.75	—	1.30 76.9%
Over 3.5	1.73 57.8%	—
Over 4.5	2.60 38.5%	—
Over 5.5	4.33 23.1%	—
Under 1.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 2.5	3.45 29.0%	—
Under 3.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.48 67.6%	—
Under 5.5	1.20 83.3%	—

Match center

Metz

Founded 1932

Monaco

Founded 1919

Match center

Metz

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Monaco

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Bubakar Traore Kleo Melere Fode Ballo-Ture Usman Ba Travmirovannye Takumi Minamino Mokhammed Salisu Vanderson Kassum Uattara Paris Brunner Stanis Idumbo-Muzambo Diskvalifitsirovannye Koffi Kuao CHAMP

Metz Founded: 1932

Monaco Founded: 1919

Match center

Metz

D L L D D

26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 4:4 Le Havre

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 1:3 Paris FC

10.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 1:3 Marseille

05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 0:0 Nantes

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 0:0 Rennes

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

2.0 Conceded

3 Points

Monaco

D D L W W

25.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Monaco 2:2 Toulouse

19.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1

Monaco 2:2 Auxerre

10.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Monaco 1:4 Paris FC

05.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Monaco 2:1 Marseille

22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1

Monaco 2:1 Lion

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

2.0 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Monaco

Metz

1 matches total

Monaco

Metz: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Monaco: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Monaco 2:5 (21.09 15:15 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 7 goals (2:5, 21.09 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 2

Match history

21.09 15:15 UTC

Ligue 1

Metz

2:5

Monaco

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Metz

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Monaco

31 Games 31

3 Wins 15

7 Draws 6

21 Losses 10

31 Scored 54

70 Conceded 47

16 Points 51

81.5 Attacks 105.97

37.17 Dangerous attacks 51.7

0 Big chances 0

9.42 Shots on goal 11.48

3.26 Shots on target 4.35

0.13 Sendoffs 0.19 Goly Zhessi Demenge Gote En 1:0 49' Folarin Balogun Magnes Akliush 1 61' Ansu Fati Kayo Enrike 1:2 90+1' Nakazaniya Mamadu Kulibali 62' Kristian Mavissa 81'

Metts Monako 31 Games 31 3 Wins 15 7 Draws 6 21 Losses 10 31 Scored 54 70 Conceded 47 16 Points 51 81.5 Attacks 105.97 37.17 Dangerous attacks 51.7 0 Big chances 0 9.42 Shots on goal 11.48 3.26 Udary v stvor 4.35 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.13 Uglovye 4.71 1.39 Offsaydy 2.19 11.42 Foly 12.77 49.32 % vladeniya myachom 52.97 1.61 Warnings 2.13 0.13 Sendoffs 0.19 Goly Zhessi Demenge Gote En 1:0 49' Folarin Balogun Magnes Akliush 1 61' Ansu Fati Kayo Enrike 1:2 90+1' Nakazaniya Mamadu Kulibali 62' Kristian Mavissa 81'