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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
05.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Metz - Nantes

France Football
Stadium Stade Saint-Symphorien
Capacity 30 000
Metz
Metz
0 : 0
Finished
Nantes
Nantes
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Nantes — 41%

1 · Metz31.6%
X · draw27.7%
2 · Nantes40.8%

Model estimate: win Metz 31.6%, draw 27.7%, win Nantes 40.8%. Model favourite — Nantes.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Nantes April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nantes.

Strongest: Nantes - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.90 / X 3.25 / 2 2.49
  • 1X2 market: Metz 32.7% / X 29.2% / Nantes 38.1%
  • Glicko: Metz 31.6% / X 27.7% / Nantes 40.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 39.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 32.7%
X 29.2%
2 38.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 45.1%
Under 2.5 54.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 28.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Stadium Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)
Capacity 30,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Nantes 41%
💹 Market Nantes 3812%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Metz - Nantes

Metz: Win 3.00 Metz: Draw 3.40 Nantes Win: 2.38 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Metz bolshe 0.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Metz menshe 0.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Nantes bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Indiv…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 14
Statistics 26
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
38' 38' Yellow Card | Maxime Colin Miroslava Medvedeva Metz
39' 39' Red Card | Tylel Tati Nantes
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Ignatius Ganago | assist/sub out: Deiver Machado F. Sacko Nantes
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Ignatius Ganago | assist/sub out: Deiver Machado F. Sacko Nantes
63' 63' Yellow Card | Francis Coquelin M. Sels Nantes
63' 63' Substitution 1 | Urie-Michel Mboula | assist/sub out: Believe Munongo Metz
63' 63' Substitution 2 | Maxime Colin | assist/sub out: Nathan Mbala Miroslava Medvedeva Metz
72' 72' Yellow Card | Believe Munongo Metz
Metric Metz Nantes SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.28 0.46 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 1 final
Shots off target 9 3 final
Shots on target 5 2 final
Udary vsego 19 6 final
Fouls soversheno 14 10 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Metz #1 Anthony Lopes, #3 Nicolas Cozza, #6 Chidozie Awaziem, #8 Johann Lepenant, #10 Matthis Abline, #13 F. Coquelin, #21 Mohamed Kaba, #24 F. Guilbert, #37 Ignatius Kpene Ganago, #78 T. Tati
Nantes #2 M. Colin, #4 U. Mboula, #5 J. Gbamin, #7 G. Tsitaishvili, #10 G. Hein, #20 J. Deminguet, #30 H. Diallo, #38 Sadibou Sané, #39 K. Kouao, #61 P. Sy, #70 B. Sarr
Player Team Metric SStats
Ali Youssef Metz football.player.assists 0
Ali Youssef Metz Dribling popytki 2
Ali Youssef Metz Edinoborstva vsego 5
Ali Youssef Metz Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
Ali Youssef Metz Fouls soversheno 2
Ali Youssef Metz Seyvy 0
Ali Youssef Metz football.player.minutes_played 45
Ali Youssef Metz Klyuchevye pasy 12
Ali Youssef Metz Reyting (staryy) 6.7
Ali Youssef Metz Perekhvaty 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Metz 31.4% 31.6%
Draw 29.8% 27.7% draw risk
Nantes 38.8% 40.8% market and model agree
xG - 1.10 : 1.28
Total 2.5 Over 39.5% - Under 60.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 31.6% / 27.7% / 40.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,362 / 1,389 Metz / Nantes
RD 84 / 78 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.49 market consensus · no value · model 40.8%
X 3.25 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.90 market consensus · no value · model 31.6%
Double chance
X2 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 68.4%
12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 72.4%
1X 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 59.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.42 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.05 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.11 market consensus · no value · model 39.5%
Under 2.5 1.73 market consensus · weak value +4.6% · model 60.5%
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.84 35.2% 2.85 35.1% 3.04 32.9% 2.88 34.7% 2.88 34.7% 2.90 34.5%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.39 29.5% 3.10 32.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.20 31.3%
2.46 40.7% 2.51 39.8% 2.55 39.2% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.52 39.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.91 52.4% 2.01 49.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.40 71.4% 1.43 69.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.36 73.5%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.58 63.3% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.53 65.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5% — 1.32 75.8%
Over 1.75 — — 1.41 70.9%
Over 2.25 — 1.85 54.1% —
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Over 3.5 3.80 26.3% — —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Under 2.25 — 2.05 48.8% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% — —
Match center
Metz
Founded 1932
Nantes
Founded 1943
Match center
Metz
BS B. Stambouli Ribs Injury
GK G. Kvilitaia Illness
Nantes
DA D. Assoumani Calf Injury
BD B. Deuff Foot Injury
Metz Founded: 1932
Nantes Founded: 1943
Match center
Metz
D L L L L
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 RennesRennes
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 3:4 ToulouseToulouse
08.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 LensLens
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
21.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.2 Conceded
1 Points
Nantes
L L L W L
22.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 2:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
07.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:1 AngersAngers
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:1 LilleLille
22.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 2:0 Le HavreLe Havre
13.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:3 MonacoMonaco
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Nantes

Metz
1 matches total
Nantes
Metz: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Nantes: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Metz 2:0 (02.11 16:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 02.11 16:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 2

Match history

02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz
2:0
Nantes
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.