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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
19.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction Prediction
19.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Metz - Paris FC

France Football
Stadium Stade Saint-Symphorien
Capacity 30 000
Metz
Metz
1 : 3
Finished
Paris FC
Paris FC
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Paris FC — 49%

1 · Metz25.2%
X · draw26.1%
2 · Paris FC48.8%

Model estimate: win Metz 25.2%, draw 26.1%, win Paris FC 48.8%. Model favourite — Paris FC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Paris FC April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris FC.

Strongest: Paris FC - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.14 / X 3.46 / 2 2.24
  • 1X2 market: Metz 30.2% / X 27.5% / Paris FC 42.3%
  • Glicko: Metz 25.2% / X 26.1% / Paris FC 48.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 32.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 30.2%
X 27.4%
2 42.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 53.1%
Under 2.5 46.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 46.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 19.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Stadium Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)
Capacity 30,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Paris FC 49%
💹 Market Paris FC 4232%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Metz - Paris FC

Metz: Win 3.40 Metz: Draw 3.40 Paris FC Win: 2.15 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Metz bolshe 0.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Metz menshe 0.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Paris FC bolshe 1.5: 2.10 I…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:3
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Yellow Card | Urie-Michel Mboula Metz
21' 21' Normal Goal | Alimami Gory Julia Terziyska Paris FC
30' 30' Substitution 1 | Habib Diallo | assist/sub out: Giorgi Kvilitaia Ethan David Zapp Metz
31' 31' Normal Goal | Giorgi Kvilitaia I. Khanenko Metz
38' 38' Yellow Card | Koffi Kouao Metz
45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | Ilan Kebbal Paris FC
57' 57' Substitution 2 | Urie-Michel Mboula | assist/sub out: Bouna Sarr Metz
62' 62' Yellow Card | Alimami Gory Julia Terziyska Paris FC
Metric Metz Paris FC SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.01 1.74 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final
Shots off target 3 7 final
Shots on target 6 7 final
Udary vsego 13 15 final
Fouls soversheno 9 8 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Metz #4 U. Mboula, #5 J. Gbamin, #7 G. Tsitaishvili, #10 G. Hein, #15 T. Yegbe, #20 J. Deminguet, #30 H. Diallo, #34 N. Mbala, #38 Sadibou Sané, #39 K. Kouao, #61 P. Sy
Paris FC #6 Otavio, #7 A. Gory, #10 I. Kebbal, #14 H. Traore, #16 O. Nkambadio, #23 R. Matondo, #24 L. Koleosho, #28 T. De Smet, #31 Samir Sophian Chergui, #36 C. Immobile, #42 D. Coppola
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Touré Metz Seyvy 0
B. Sarr Metz football.player.assists 0
B. Sarr Metz Dribling popytki 5
B. Sarr Metz Dribling uspeshno 1
B. Sarr Metz Edinoborstva vsego 1
B. Sarr Metz Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
B. Sarr Metz Fouls soversheno 1
B. Sarr Metz Fouls na igroke 1
B. Sarr Metz Seyvy 0
B. Sarr Metz football.player.minutes_played 33
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Metz 27.3% 25.2%
Draw 27.6% 26.1% draw risk
Paris FC 45.0% 48.8% market and model agree
xG - 0.99 : 1.49
Total 2.5 Over 32.2% - Under 67.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 25.2% / 26.1% / 48.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,358 / 1,516 Metz / Paris FC
RD 82 / 77 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.24 market consensus · weak value +9.2% · model 48.8%
X 3.46 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.14 market consensus · no value · model 25.2%
Double chance
X2 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 74.9%
12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 73.9%
1X 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 51.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.12 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.20 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 32.2%
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · value +38.2% · model 67.8%
Both teams to score
No 2.18 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.64 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.05 32.8% 3.25 30.8% 3.27 30.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.45 29.0% 3.62 27.6% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.45 29.0%
2.22 45.1% 2.21 45.3% 2.31 43.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.15 46.5% 1.99 50.3% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.17 46.1%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.80 55.6% 1.61 62.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.62 61.7% 1.69 59.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75 — — 1.27 78.7%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.97 50.8% —
Over 3.5 2.95 33.9% — —
Over 4.5 5.50 18.2% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.80 26.3% — —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.14 87.7% — —
Match center
Metz
Founded 1932
Paris FC
Founded 1969
Match center
Metz
L D D L L
10.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:3 MarseilleMarseille
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 NantesNantes
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 RennesRennes
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 3:4 ToulouseToulouse
08.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 LensLens
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
2 Points
Paris FC
W D W D D
10.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 4:1 MonacoMonaco
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:1 LorientLorient
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 3:2 Le HavreLe Havre
15.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:0 StrasbourgStrasbourg
08.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:1 LionLion
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Paris FC

Metz
1 matches total
Paris FC
Metz: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Paris FC: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Paris FC 2:3 (31.08 15:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 31.08 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 2

Match history

31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz
2:3
Paris FC
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.