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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
15.03.2026 16:15 UTC Match prediction
15.03.2026 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Metz - Toulouse

France Football
Metz
Metz
3 : 4
Finished
Toulouse
Toulouse

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Toulouse March 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toulouse.

Line favourite market consensus: Toulouse. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.79 / X 3.41 / 2 2.01
  • 1X2 market: Metz 25.1% / X 27.8% / Toulouse 47.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 25.0%
X 27.8%
2 47.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 46.6%
Under 2.5 53.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.03.2026 16:15 UTC
Match center

Metz - Toulouse

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.01 market consensus · line only
X 3.42 market consensus · line only
1 3.80 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.26 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.81 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.27 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.05 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.00 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.05 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.79 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.91 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.90 25.6%
X 3.55 28.2%
2.04 49.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.80 26.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.94 25.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.45 29.0% 3.58 27.9% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4%
1.96 51.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9% 2.00 50.0%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.81 55.3% 1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.22 82.0%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.80 55.6% 1.84 54.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
Match center
Metz
L L L L D
08.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 LensLens
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
21.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
15.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:3 AuxerreAuxerre
06.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 LilleLille
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.2 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points
Toulouse
L L D L L
07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
28.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 RennesRennes
21.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
15.02 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:2 Le HavreLe Havre
08.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 AngersAngers
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Toulouse

Metz
1 matches total
Toulouse
Metz: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Toulouse: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Toulouse 0:4 (19.10 15:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 19.10 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 0

Match history

19.10 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz
0:4
Toulouse