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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
05.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Monaco - Marseille

France Football
Stadium Stade Louis II
Monaco
Monaco
2 : 1
Finished
Marseille
Marseille
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Monaco — 41%

1 · Monaco40.9%
X · draw25.2%
2 · Marseille33.9%

Model estimate: win Monaco 40.9%, draw 25.2%, win Marseille 33.9%. Model favourite — Monaco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Monaco - Marseille April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Strongest: Monaco - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.14 / X 3.64 / 2 3.22
  • 1X2 market: Monaco 44.4% / X 26.1% / Marseille 29.5%
  • Glicko: Monaco 40.9% / X 25.2% / Marseille 33.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 40.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 44.4%
X 26.1%
2 29.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 60.8%
Under 2.5 39.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 43.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Stade Louis II (Monaco)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Monaco 41%
💹 Market Monaco 4440%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Monaco - Marseille

Monaco: Win 2.10 Monaco: Draw 3.70 Marseille Win: 3.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Monaco bolshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Monaco menshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Marseille bolshe 1…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
8' 8' Yellow Card | L. Camara Monaco
34' 34' Yellow Card | F. Medina Aleix Cisteró Marseille
59' 59' Normal Goal | A. Golovin | assist/sub out: J. Teze Monaco
65' 65' Substitution 3 | C. Mawissa | assist/sub out: K. Diatta Monaco
65' 65' Substitution 4 | M. Coulibaly | assist/sub out: A. Bamba Monaco
70' 70' Yellow Card | T. Kehrer Monaco
73' 73' Substitution 5 | H. J. Traore | assist/sub out: E. Nwaneri Marseille
74' 74' Normal Goal | F. Balogun Monaco
Metric Monaco Marseille SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.58 2.23 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 5 final
Shots off target 3 5 final
Shots on target 3 9 final
Udary vsego 7 19 final
Fouls soversheno 14 9 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Offsides 2 4 final
Monaco #1 Gerónimo Rulli, #4 C. Egan-Riley, #9 Amine Gouiri, #14 I. Paixao, #17 P. Aubameyang, #20 H. J. Traore, #22 T. Weah, #23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, #27 Q. Timber, #28 B. Pavard, #32 Facundo Medina
Marseille #1 L. Hradecky, #4 J. Teze, #5 T. Kehrer, #6 D. Zakaria, #9 F. Balogun, #10 A. Golovin, #11 Maghnes Akliouche, #13 C. Mawissa, #15 Lamine Camara, #25 W. Faes, #28 M. Coulibaly
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Bamba Marseille football.player.assists 0
A. Bamba Marseille Dribling popytki 5
A. Bamba Marseille Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Bamba Marseille Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
A. Bamba Marseille Fouls soversheno 2
A. Bamba Marseille Fouls na igroke 1
A. Bamba Marseille Seyvy 0
A. Bamba Marseille football.player.minutes_played 25
A. Bamba Marseille Klyuchevye pasy 8
A. Bamba Marseille Reyting (staryy) 6.9
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Monaco 44.7% 40.9% market and model agree
Draw 26.1% 25.2% draw risk
Marseille 29.2% 33.9%
xG - 1.48 : 1.32
Total 2.5 Over 40.3% - Under 59.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 40.9% / 25.2% / 33.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,599 / 1,615 Monaco / Marseille
RD 77 / 79 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.22 market consensus · no value · model 33.9%
X 3.64 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.14 market consensus · no value · model 40.9%
Double chance
X2 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 59.1%
12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 74.8%
1X 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 66.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.73 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.35 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.98 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.33 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 40.3%
Under 2.5 2.40 market consensus · value +43.3% · model 59.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.56 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.47 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.14 46.7% 2.16 46.3% 2.22 45.1% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.18 45.9%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 3.40 29.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0%
3.05 32.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.34 29.9% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.15 31.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.55 39.2% 2.61 38.3% 2.56 39.1% 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.80 35.7% 2.55 39.2% 2.52 39.7%
yes 1.45 69.0% 1.48 67.6% 1.46 68.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.74 57.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8% — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.5 1.55 64.5% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.93 51.8% —
Over 3.5 2.35 42.6% — —
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 5.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.40 41.7% — —
Under 3.0 — 1.97 50.8% —
Under 3.5 1.57 63.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
Monaco
Founded 1919
Marseille
Founded 1899
Match center
Monaco
TM T. Minamino Knee Injury
CH Caio Henrique Thigh Injury
Marseille
MG M. Greenwood Yellow Cards
GK G. Kondogbia Thigh Injury
Monaco Founded: 1919
Marseille Founded: 1899
Match center
Monaco
W W W W W
22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:1 LionLion
14.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
06.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 3:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
28.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:0 AngersAngers
21.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 3:2 LensLens
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
15 Points
Marseille
L W W W L
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:2 LilleLille
13.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 AuxerreAuxerre
07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 ToulouseToulouse
01.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:2 LionLion
20.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:2 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMonaco - Marseille

Monaco
2 matches total
Marseille
Monaco: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Marseille: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Monaco 3:0 (12.04 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 12.04 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 3

Match history

14.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco
0:1
Marseille
12.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco
3:0
Marseille
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.